Euro: Sintra seasonality points to tactical strength against US Dollar – BNY
Recent analysis from BNY highlights anticipated seasonal strength for the Euro against the US Dollar, particularly surrounding the ECB's Sintra conference. With the current EUR/USD spot at 1.1700, traders should consider this window of opportunity, especially given a generally bearish sentiment towards the USD. Should upcoming data fail to meet expectations, however, positioning shifts could unravel and dampen this bullish sentiment.
Where it sits in our coverage
Our consensus EUR/USD target stands at 1.1700, with forecasts from firms spacing out between a low of 1.1100 (Citi) and a high of 1.2000 (UBS and Deutsche Bank). This range indicates a mix of optimism and caution among analysts regarding the Euro's trajectory against the Dollar leading into the second half of 2026.
How firms align
Key firms are positioning similarly with moderate bullishness; JPMorgan, for example, has a March target of 1.1800, aligning well with the overall sentiment observed in BNY's analysis. Meanwhile, Goldman also reflects a nuanced bullish stance with a target of 1.1800 for the same period, reinforcing the seasonal arguments for EUR strength. For a deeper dive, refer to our reports on /reports/jpmorgan and /reports/goldman.
What the data shows
Recent revisions have seen adjustments from firms like Scotiabank raising their March EUR/USD target to 1.1734. Notably, our prior insight, /research/eurusd-ecb-rate-path, elaborates on the potential divergence in rate expectations which could impact these currency movements.
How firms align with this view
Aligned with the headline view
Contrary positioning
Key takeaways
- 01EUR/USD currently at 1.1700; seasonal dynamics could spur tactical buying.
- 02Monitor for positioning risks as data releases approach.
- 03Watch for sentiment shifts if upcoming economic indicators surprise to the downside.
Market implications
Traders should focus on levels around 1.1800 as a potential resistance point, particularly with the upcoming ECB communications reinforcing these dynamics. The consensus level of 1.1700 may provide a critical support zone, influencing intra-day trading strategies.
Risks to this view
A reversal may occur if economic data disappoints significantly, which could lead to a de-escalation of bullish sentiment surrounding the Euro. Additionally, unexpected shifts in US monetary policy could also pressure the EUR/USD pair to reassess its trajectory.
Sentiment by currency
USD-EUR+JPY~GBP~Composite USD score: -0.35
Sources & References
How we cover this story
Other coverage on this pair
Euro: Political and growth risks point lower against US Dollar – HSBC
HSBC identifies structural euro weakness from political and growth headwinds, supporting USD strength in medium term.
Euro: Range trading likely to persist against US Dollar – Scotiabank
EUR/USD Price Forecasts: Struggling to regain 1.1400 amid geopolitical uncertainty
EUR/USD rejection below 1.1400 signals geopolitical risk premium supporting USD safe-haven positioning.
Euro: Shifts from selloff to consolidation against US Dollar – UOB
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