Where it sits in our coverage
Our consensus EUR/USD target sits at 1.075 (median across 8 firms), with Goldman at the upper bound (1.12) and BofA at the lower (1.04). The market sentiment appears to be skewing towards a cautious outlook following the elections, aligning more closely with the upper third, as noted by JPMorgan and ING in their recent analyses.
How firms align
JPMorgan remains aligned with this view, currently targeting 1.10 for March 2026, reflecting a belief that the post-election adjustments will stabilize above current levels. In contrast, BofA's more conservative position at 1.04 indicates a bearish outlook, suggesting that they expect market reactions to phase out over time, as outlined in our internal /reports/bofa page.
What the data shows
Recent research has highlighted a tendency for the market to oscillate following politically charged events, with potential for re-evaluations of risk appetite. Our insights suggest that traders should focus on sustainable levels rather than temporary fluctuations, as indicated in /research/marketvolatility.