EUR/USD and GBP/USD break support – Gold and Silver on a knife's edge [Video]
The recent break below key support levels in both EUR/USD and GBP/USD highlights a strengthening USD, triggering renewed bearish sentiment towards the Euro and Pound. This downturn poses significant implications for risk-sensitive assets like gold and silver, which are experiencing heightened volatility amidst these moves. The current pricing dynamics suggest a critical inflection point for traders, as the market adjusts following this technical breakdown.
Where it sits in our coverage
Our consensus EUR/USD target currently stands at 1.1700 (median across 8 firms), with Morgan Stanley at the high end at 1.2000 and HSBC at the lower bound of 1.1000. The view from FXStreet aligns more closely with the mid-range expectations indicated by SocGen and Investec, both targeting 1.1700 by March 26, 2026.
How firms align
Firms like SocGen and Investec are maintaining their March 26 targets at 1.1700, consistent with the sentiment reflected in the headline. In contrast, Danske Bank suggests a more bearish position with a forecast of 1.1866 in March, which diverges from the general consensus as noted in our research (/research/eurusd-ecb-rate-path-2026-09-16).
What the data shows
Recent revisions from BNP Paribas note an adjusted March target at 1.1600, indicating a downward shift that reflects prevailing bearish sentiment. This aligns with our internal analysis, where current pricing is below several firms' forecasts, such as Mizuho at 1.1800 and RBC at 1.1600, pointing to a potential struggle to regain upward momentum.
How firms align with this view
Aligned with the headline view
Contrary positioning
Key takeaways
- 01EUR/USD has broken below critical support, opening up further downside risk.
- 02Traders should closely watch the evolving dynamics in gold and silver as risk sensitivity heightens.
- 03A further decline below 1.1446 could trigger extended bearish momentum for the Euro.
- 04Market should remain sensitive to upcoming ECB meetings which may influence rates.
Market implications
Next, traders should monitor key psychological levels around 1.1400 for EUR/USD for signs of continued selling pressure. Additionally, the upcoming ECB meeting on rates could be a pivotal event influencing pair movements, especially with our consensus of 1.1700 being notably above current levels.
Risks to this view
Reversal of this view could occur if strong economic data from the Eurozone emerge, particularly if inflation metrics suggest a need for tightening ahead of the ECB's planned moves. A shift in sentiment due to geopolitical stability could also undermine the current bearish outlook.
Sentiment by currency
USD+EUR JPY~GBPComposite USD score: +0.65
Sources & References
How we cover this story
Other coverage on this pair
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