Euro: Holds below 1.15 against US Dollar as yields rise - Danske Bank
The Euro remains under pressure, trading below the 1.15 mark against the US Dollar amid rising yields, reflecting a broader sentiment shift as investors reassess economic prospects. Danske Bank highlights this stagnation, which could be crucial for positioning in the near term as market expectations evolve with macroeconomic indicators. The current spot price of 1.1446 indicates a tighter range than previous forecasts, emphasizing the Euro's vulnerability amidst a shifting landscape.
Where it sits in our coverage
Our consensus target for EUR/USD stands at 1.1684 (median across ten firms), with RBC projecting the highest at 1.2000 and Standard Chartered at the lower end with a target of 1.1400. Danske Bank's perspective suggests a more cautious outlook than many of its peers, especially in light of recent forecasts positioning the Euro below the consensus levels.
How firms align
RBC and CIBC align closely with the current levels, with targets reflecting a potential pathway toward recovery above 1.1700 for March 2026, while firms like Danske Bank and Societe Generale maintain a more bearish stance in their recent forecasts (/research/eurusd-ecb-rate-path-2026-09-19).
What the data shows
Recent revisions indicate a consensus shift as BNP Paribas and Scotiabank refine their targets for March, suggesting a potential easing in expectations, with Scotiabank now forecasting 1.1734. Our report (/research/eurusd-ecb-rate-path) highlights that current trading is approximately 1.41% below the median consensus target of 1.1700 for late 2026.
How firms align with this view
Aligned with the headline view
Contrary positioning
Key takeaways
- 01EUR/USD trades at 1.1446, below key resistance at 1.15.
- 02Market signals suggest divergence in trader sentiment as yields rise.
- 03Key resistance remains at 1.17; a break could spark renewed interest in the Euro.
Market implications
Traders should monitor the 1.15 resistance level closely, as a definitive break could signal a shift in sentiment supported by upcoming economic releases. Our consensus target of 1.1684 remains a focal point for future positioning around this range.
Risks to this view
An unexpected divergence in US economic data or a reversal in rate hike expectations could invalidate this view, potentially pushing EUR/USD below 1.1400. Additionally, geopolitical tensions may also impact the Euro's trajectory.
Sentiment by currency
USD+EUR JPY~GBP~Composite USD score: +0.60
Sources & References
How we cover this story
Other coverage on this pair
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