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FX BANK FORECAST · COVERAGE
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Aggregated year-end forecasts, scenario shifts, and curated analyst notes from 37 institutional desks. No promotion.
FX BANK FORECAST · COVERAGE
Aggregated year-end forecasts, scenario shifts, and curated analyst notes from 37 institutional desks. No promotion.
The euro is positioned for a weekly decline against the USD, fueled by a hawkish outlook from the Federal Reserve that has bolstered confidence in dollar strength. This development highlights the widening interest rate differentials that increasingly favor the dollar amid uncertainty about the ECB's future moves. With the euro currently trading at 1.1446, this trend underscores the diverging monetary policies and suggests continued volatility in the EUR/USD pair.
Our consensus target for EUR/USD stands at 1.1684 (median across multiple firms), with Morgan Stanley projecting the highest target at 1.2000 for March 2026, while Danske Bank offers a notably lower forecast of 1.1100 for December 2026. [fxstreet.com]'s view on the euro’s weakness against the dollar aligns closely with the general bearish sentiment currently prevailing in the market.
Firms like Scotiabank and Nomura share an optimistic view of the euro, setting their March 2026 targets at 1.1734 and 1.1700, respectively. In contrast, BNP Paribas has recently adjusted its outlook downward to 1.1600 for March 2026, indicating a more cautious approach. For further insights, refer to our detailed reports on these positions at /research/eurusd-ecb-rate-path-2026-09-18.
Recent revisions highlight that Mizuho raised its March 2026 target to 1.1800, while Scotiabank and BNP Paribas have adjusted their targets downwards, reflecting a shift in sentiment. See more on this adjustment in our report /research/eurusd-ecb-rate-path-2026-09-16.
How firms align with this view
Aligned with the headline view
Contrary positioning
Key takeaways
Market implications
Looking ahead, traders should keep an eye on upcoming economic data from the US that could further influence rate expectations and therefore the EUR/USD trade. A decisive break of 1.1400 could indicate further dollar strength against the euro, alongside our consensus target of 1.1684.
Risks to this view
A reversal in this view could occur if the ECB signals a more aggressive stance on interest rates than expected, or if US economic data disappoints, leading to a reevaluation of Fed's hawkish commitments.
Sentiment by currency
USD+EUR JPY~GBP~Composite USD score: +0.65
How we cover this story
Fed hawkishness creating fresh EUR/USD selling pressure suggests market repricing higher-for-longer USD rates relative to ECB policy trajectory.
Rising yields supporting USD strength; EUR/USD trading below 1.15 suggests market repricing of relative rate differentials favors dollar appreciation.
Break below 1.1455 signals technical exhaustion in EUR; watch for downside acceleration toward 1.1350 support.
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EUR/USD trades 1.69% below the 30-firm median Dec-26 target of 1.1684, with a 0.14 range separating Nordea's 1.24 bull case from Citi's 1.10 floor.
EUR/USD spot at 1.1475 sits 1.79% below the 30-firm Dec-26 consensus of 1.1684, with a 0.14 spread separating the most and least bullish desks.
EUR/USD spot sits 1.78% below the 30-firm median Dec-26 target of 1.1684, with a 0.14 range separating the most and least bullish desks.