EUR/USD breaks bearish – Is 1.15 next as Gold and Silver turn heavy? [Video]
The recent breakdown in EUR/USD has shifted market sentiment, threatening the support at 1.15, as bearish momentum appears to be gaining strength. A decisive close below this level could open the door to further institutional selling pressure, potentially leading the pair toward the lower bound of the consensus range. Commodity weakness, particularly in gold and silver, serves as an additional bearish signal that could fuel this downward move, making the next few trading sessions critical for positioning.
Where it sits in our coverage
Our consensus target for EUR/USD currently stands at 1.1700, with a wide range among firms stretching from 1.1200 to 1.2000. In contrast to the negative sentiment indicated by FXStreet, SocGen aligns more closely with the higher end of the targets at 1.1700 for March 2026, while TMGZ and Stanchart position themselves more conservatively around 1.1447 and 1.1400, respectively.
How firms align
Specific firms show varied perspectives; for instance, RBC and UOB both target 1.1700 by March 2026, suggesting a more optimistic outlook compared to the headline's bearish stance. In contrast, TMGZ's target of 1.1447 shows alignment with the current breakdown narrative highlighted in the headline, indicating a cautious approach. These discrepancies underscore the diverging views on future movement in the euro-dollar pair.
What the data shows
Recent forecast revisions offer insight into the evolving market perspective. Mizuho recently revised its March 2026 target to 1.1800, indicating slightly more bullish sentiment. Additionally, insights from /research/eurusd-ecb-rate-path-2026-09-10 reveal that market consensus is closely tied to ECB signals, lending further context to the current price actions.
How firms align with this view
Aligned with the headline view
Contrary positioning
Key takeaways
- 01EUR/USD breakdown suggests 1.15 could soon be tested.
- 02Commodity weakness is pressuring the euro against the dollar.
- 031.15 serves as a key support level; failure could lead to further declines.
- 04Institutional selling may accelerate if bearish sentiment persists.
Market implications
Traders should watch the 1.15 level closely, as a break could set off another wave of selling. Upcoming ECB communications could provide insight into policy direction, influencing sentiment further. Our current consensus number of 1.1700 remains a significant barrier against bearish movements.
Risks to this view
A reversal in this bearish view could occur if economic data or ECB rhetoric indicates a stronger-than-expected Eurozone recovery, possibly reinforcing support at 1.17 or higher. Additionally, a rally in gold and silver could also indicate a potential risk-off sentiment that may buoy the euro.
Sentiment by currency
USD+EUR JPY~GBP~Composite USD score: +0.65
Sources & References
How we cover this story
Other coverage on this pair
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