Weekly forex forecast: EUR/USD, XAU/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, Bitcoin and more [Video]
This week's forex forecast highlights the continued navigation of pairs like EUR/USD and GBP/USD against a backdrop of neutral sentiment towards the USD, EUR, JPY, and GBP. Current market dynamics are emphasizing the persistent divergence in consensus targets across firms, particularly for the EUR/USD pair, which reflects a median target of 1.1700 for March 2026, compared to the current spot at 1.1446. As positioning prepares ahead of the upcoming Fed decision, traders are calibrating their strategies amid contrasting views within the marketplace.
Where it sits in our coverage
Our consensus EUR/USD target currently stands at 1.1700 (median across firms), with Morgan Stanley at the upper bound (1.2000) and TMGM at the lower end (1.1447). This contrasts with FXStreet's overall neutral assessment, indicating a divergence where some firms project a stronger EUR, while others remain cautious.
How firms align
Notably, RBC and Nomura support the bullish sentiment towards EUR/USD, with targets of 1.1600 and 1.1700, respectively, which are in line with the headline's forecast. In contrast, Stanchart and CIBC present more conservative views, pricing targets at 1.1400 and 1.1866 for March 2026, which reflect a cautious approach amid economic uncertainties.
What the data shows
Recent forecast revisions have shown an uptick in targets, with UBS forecasting 1.2000 for March 2026, suggesting a potential upside amid current market conditions. This sentiment is also echoed in our recent published research, highlighting the consensus target implications in /research/eurusd-ecb-rate-path-2026-09-14.
How firms align with this view
Aligned with the headline view
Contrary positioning
Key takeaways
- 01Current EUR/USD spot at 1.1446 contrasts with a consensus target of 1.1700.
- 02Market positioning ahead of the Fed decision is crucial for EUR volatility.
- 03Look for directional shifts post-Fed rate meeting as key support/resistance levels are tested.
- 04Divergence in target forecasts indicates varied market confidence among firms.
Market implications
Next week, traders should monitor the EUR/USD's reaction around the key level of 1.1500, particularly as the Fed's rate announcement approaches. The consensus target of 1.1700 remains a critical pivot, influencing sentiment and positioning ahead of the event.
Risks to this view
A failure to raise rates or indicative language from the Fed that suggests a dovish stance could invalidate the current bullish sentiment towards the EUR/USD, forcing a reevaluation of targets across the board. Market surprises or unexpected data releases could also prompt volatility.
Sentiment by currency
USD~EUR~JPY~GBP~Composite USD score: +0.00
Sources & References
How we cover this story
Other coverage on this pair
Euro: Support seen near 1.15 against US Dollar – Scotiabank
Technical support identification at 1.15 EUR/USD suggests downside risk is bounded; breaks below warrant tactical EUR shorts.
Euro: Further downside favoured against US Dollar - ING
ING technical call for further EUR/USD weakness suggests institutional flows may remain USD-favoring absent ECB hawkish repricing.
EUR/USD breaks bearish – Is 1.15 next as Gold and Silver turn heavy? [Video]
EUR/USD breakdown below key support suggests institutional selling; monitor 1.15 as next technical target with commodity weakness as supporting signal.