Euro: Support seen near 1.15 against US Dollar – Scotiabank
Scotiabank's analysis points to critical support for the euro near the 1.15 level against the US dollar, a sentiment echoed amidst a weakening dollar environment due to less aggressive monetary policy outlooks. Our current spot for EUR/USD is 1.1446, highlighting a narrow range where the pair is currently oscillating. The convergence towards this support level is crucial, as it may dictate broader market sentiment and positioning in the near term.
Where it sits in our coverage
Our consensus EUR/USD target sits at 1.1700 (median across 12 firms), with Morgan Stanley at the upper bound (1.2000) and Danske Bank at the lower (1.1100). Scotiabank's support viewpoint aligns with this general outlook, favoring a stabilization near 1.15 and reflecting the broader market dynamics.
How firms align
Firm targets show a diverse outlook; for instance, RBC and HSBC support higher targets at 1.1700, indicative of a bullish sentiment on the euro. Meanwhile, firms like Societe Generale also predict a similar trajectory at 1.1700 for March 2026, while Morgan Stanley offers the most optimistic view at 1.2000.
What the data shows
Recent forecasts reflect an upward adjustment; Scotiabank and Mizuho both recently boosted their March 2026 targets to 1.1734 and 1.1800, respectively. This aligns with the strengthening consensus that the euro may maintain support near 1.15 as seen in /research/eurusd-ecb-rate-path-2026-09-14.
How firms align with this view
Aligned with the headline view
Key takeaways
- 01EUR/USD support expected near 1.15; current spot sits at 1.1446.
- 02Watch for market reactions around the 1.15 support level.
- 03Euro outlook strengthened by recent target adjustments from key firms.
- 04Consensus target remains at 1.1700; broader range suggests varying bullish sentiments.
Market implications
Market participants should watch for crucial support at 1.15; any breach below may signal shifts in sentiment. Upcoming ECB communications could further influence positioning around our consensus target of 1.1700.
Risks to this view
A break below 1.15 could invalidate the current bullish outlook; a shift in ECB policy indicating a more dovish stance could also trigger such a reversal. Additionally, a stronger-than-expected U.S. economic data release would pose downside risk for the euro.
Sentiment by currency
USD+EUR JPY~GBP~Composite USD score: +0.30
Firms mentioned
Sources & References
How we cover this story
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