EUR/USD – Downside continuation post FOMC in the play? [Video]
The FOMC's recent policy shift has reinforced the bullish sentiment around the USD, further intensifying downside pressure on the EUR/USD pair. With the current spot at 1.1446, traders are increasingly focused on how future Fed communications will shape terminal rate expectations. Such dynamics could drive the pair lower, echoing the bearish outlook highlighted in the referenced video analysis, suggesting that a sustained decline is plausible in the near term.
Where it sits in our coverage
Our consensus EUR/USD target currently sits at 1.1684 (median across numerous firms), with RBC at the upper range (1.2000) and Standard Chartered at the lower end (1.1400). This positioning reflects a general skepticism towards the Euro's resilience in the face of a stronger dollar narrative.
How firms align
Firms like Societe Generale (1.1700) and RBC (1.2000) appear to align with the bearish view suggested by the FOMC's impact on the USD. However, Mizuho (1.1800) and Investec (1.1455) exhibit more cautious optimism. For details on specific targets, refer to our internal reports for each firm.
What the data shows
Recent forecast revisions show that BNP Paribas has adjusted its March 2026 target down to 1.1600, reflecting a growing consensus among analysts that the EUR is likely to remain under pressure. For more insights, refer to our research on the evolving rate path in /research/eurusd-ecb-rate-path-2026-09-17.
How firms align with this view
Aligned with the headline view
Contrary positioning
Key takeaways
- 01EUR/USD faces continued pressure post-FOMC; current spot at 1.1446.
- 02Focus on Fed guidance for direction; watch for any shifts in terminal rate outlook.
- 03Key support levels around 1.1400 may come under scrutiny amidst USD strength.
Market implications
Traders should watch for potential breaks below the 1.1400 level, which could trigger further selling. Additionally, upcoming Fed statements and economic data releases may influence positioning ahead of the next monetary policy meeting. Our consensus target of 1.1684 remains a key focal point.
Risks to this view
Should the Fed signal a dovish pivot or an unexpected economic improvement emerge in the Eurozone, this could invalidate the prevailing bearish sentiment on EUR/USD. A shift in rate expectations could prompt a rapid reversal in the current trend.
Sentiment by currency
USD+EUR JPY~GBP~Composite USD score: +0.65
Sources & References
How we cover this story
Other coverage on this pair
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