EUR/USD Elliott Wave impulsive decline unfolding [Video]
The recent Elliott Wave analysis indicates that the EUR/USD downtrend is transitioning into an impulsive decline, suggesting stronger bearish momentum for the pair. As the currency pair trades around 1.1446, traders may react to the technical signals by increasing short positions. This shift is significant as it could impact broader market sentiment towards the euro as the European Central Bank navigates its monetary policy amid persistent inflation concerns.
Where it sits in our coverage
Our consensus EUR/USD target sits at 1.1700 (median across multiple firms), with CIBC at the upper bound (1.2200) and Lloyds at the lower end (1.1200). FXStreet's Elliott Wave analysis aligns with the sentiment of potential bearish positioning, which reflects in our varying target expectations.
How firms align
Several firms are positioning themselves within the broader bearish expectation initiated by the recent analysis. For instance, SocGen's target of 1.1700 in the near term indicates a cautious outlook, while BofA’s recent update at 1.1700 for March 2026 suggests a similar stance aligned with the Elliott Wave perspective. This analysis supports a reluctance to align with bullish targets at this juncture.
What the data shows
Recent forecast revisions indicate a mixed outlook for EUR/USD, with BofA lowering its March 2026 target to 1.1700 and December 2026 to 1.1500. Our ongoing research, particularly noted in /research/eurusd-ecb-rate-path-2026-09-30, highlights a persistent divergence between current spot levels and the consensus, reinforcing market caution.
How firms align with this view
Aligned with the headline view
Contrary positioning
Key takeaways
- 01Elliott Wave analysis suggests acceleration of EUR/USD short positions.
- 02Current spot at 1.1446 shows a bearish trend following recent forecasts.
- 03Technical signals are now critical; watch for movements below 1.1400.
Market implications
Traders should monitor EUR/USD as it approaches technical levels, especially the 1.1400 mark. Upcoming ECB communications could serve as a catalyst for volatility and further downward movement if bearish sentiment holds.
Risks to this view
A reversal of this bearish view could occur if the ECB signals a more hawkish stance, particularly if inflation data exceeds expectations, prompting a rethink of EUR support levels. A sustained move above 1.1700 would challenge the current bearish consensus.
Sentiment by currency
USD+EUR JPY~GBP~Composite USD score: +0.35
Sources & References
How we cover this story
Other coverage on this pair
EUR/USD Price Forecast: Monthly outlook mixed, daily chart remains bearish
Daily technicals point lower for EUR/USD despite mixed monthly context; watch for breakdown confirmation below key support levels.
EUR/USD: Measured ECB tightening to support Euro – TD Securities
ECB tightening cycle expected to provide structural support for EUR/USD, reducing near-term USD strength relative to euro.
What is driving the US Dollar to multi-month highs against the Euro as PCE data approaches?
USD strength ahead of PCE print reflects market pricing for higher-for-longer US rates relative to ECB easing cycle expectations.
EUR/USD Price Forecast: At make or a break near 1.1330
Bank desks on this topic
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FX Daily: Lagarde lifts some support from the euro
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Cross-firm research
EUR/USD Consensus Check: Spot at 1.1349, Median Target 1.17 — Week of September 30, 2026
EUR/USD spot sits 3% below the 30-firm median Dec-26 target of 1.17, with a 0.14 dispersion range exposing deep disagreement on Fed-ECB path divergence.
EUR/USD Trades 3% Below Consensus as 30-Firm Median Holds 1.17
EUR/USD spot at 1.1342 sits 3.06% below the 30-firm Dec-26 consensus of 1.17, with a 0.14 dispersion range exposing deep disagreement on the Fed-ECB rate path.
EUR/USD Consensus vs Spot Gap: Week of September 29, 2026
EUR/USD spot sits 3.12% below the 30-firm Dec-26 median target of 1.17, exposing a consensus that remains structurally bullish even as the pair trades at 1.1335.