EUR/USD falls as market sentiment favours the US Dollar
EUR/USD has declined as market sentiment increasingly favors the US Dollar amid a risk-on environment that suggests further strength in USD duration. This shift is significant, especially as it reinforces the bearish outlook on the Euro, which has struggled against renewed dollar momentum. With the current spot at 1.1446, further drops could challenge support levels, reflecting a potential recalibration of expectations among traders.
Where it sits in our coverage
Our consensus EUR/USD target is at 1.1700 for March 2026 (median across multiple firms), with a spread ranging from 1.1200 to 1.2000. Firms like RBC and SocGen align closer to the higher end of this range, suggesting a more optimistic outlook compared to the market dynamics indicated in FXStreet's report.
How firms align
RBC projects EUR/USD at 1.1600 for March 2026, aligning with a more bullish perspective while SocGen’s target of 1.1700 also supports positive sentiment. Conversely, firms like UOB suggest lower numbers, which may contrast with the prevailing market sentiment.
What the data shows
Recent forecast revisions show some firms adjusting their march targets upwards, with BNP Paribas at 1.1600 and Scotiabank at 1.1734, indicating a slight divergence from the bearish trend observed lately. Our research underscores the ongoing challenge facing the Euro as it trades below the median target of 1.1700, particularly noted in /research/eurusd-ecb-rate-path-2026-09-16.
How firms align with this view
Aligned with the headline view
Contrary positioning
Key takeaways
- 01EUR/USD is currently trading at 1.1446, with bearish momentum building.
- 02Watch for breaks below support levels — traders eyeing 1.1400.
- 03Market sentiment drives USD strength while bearish outlook on Euro persists.
- 04Firm targets show divergence, indicating a cautious approach towards EUR.
Market implications
Market participants should monitor the 1.1400 support level closely, as a break below this could trigger further selling pressure in EUR/USD. Additionally, upcoming economic data releases in the US may further bolster USD positioning, impacting consensus forecasts.
Risks to this view
Reversal of this view could occur if there is a surprising economic rebound in the Eurozone or if US data underperforms, leading to a diminished outlook for the Dollar. Specific catalysts such as ECB policy shifts or unexpected inflation data could also prompt a reassessment.
Sentiment by currency
USD+EUR JPY~GBP~Composite USD score: +0.60
Sources & References
How we cover this story
Other coverage on this pair
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