EUR/USD Price Forecast: 1.1700 caps bulls as RSI overheats
The EUR/USD pair faces technical resistance at 1.1700, with current sentiment skewed towards a pullback as indicated by an overbought RSI. This level has repeatedly capped bullish efforts, raising concerns about potential selling pressure should the pair reverse. A consolidation above 1.1700 would be necessary to sustain bullish momentum, making it a critical point for traders to monitor in the near term.
Where it sits in our coverage
Our consensus EUR/USD target sits at 1.1700 (median across firms), with RBC at the upper bound (1.2000) and Investec at the lower (1.1455). FXStreet's analysis suggests a risk of pullback, aligning with our findings, especially given the technical indicators.
How firms align
RBC and Nomura both project targets of 1.1700 for March 26, which aligns with the technical resistance highlighted. On the contrary, firms like Investec and tmgm exhibit more bearish targets, placing their expectations closer to 1.1455 and 1.1447, respectively, suggesting skepticism around the EUR's capacity to sustain strength around the 1.1700 level.
What the data shows
Recent forecast revisions from UOB indicate a shift in sentiment, now peaking at 1.1759 for March 26, which might reflect a lagging indicator of current bullishness. Insight from earlier research notes this pivotal junction at 1.1663, suggesting traders remain cautious as we approach critical resistance levels, as noted in our recent publications like /research/eurusd-ecb-rate-path-2026-08-24.
How firms align with this view
Aligned with the headline view
Contrary positioning
Key takeaways
- 01Technical resistance at 1.1700 signals potential EUR/USD pullback risk.
- 02Bears are watching closely for signs of reversal below the pivotal 1.17 handle.
- 03Upcoming ECB commentary could shift sentiment, particularly if inflation remains elevated.
- 04Key support noted at 1.1450 must hold to avoid deeper retracements.
Market implications
Monitoring the EUR/USD movement around the 1.1700 level will be crucial. A reversal from this point could see price action drift towards the consensus target of 1.1700, while any close below 1.1450 might fuel bearish sentiment further. Look to upcoming economic data releases for directional clarity.
Risks to this view
Should inflation data outpace expectations or ECB tilt towards a more hawkish stance, it could pressure the EUR/USD higher, invalidating the current bearish outlook. A sustained close above 1.1700 could trigger a fresh wave of buying interest, misleading those underestimating EUR strength.
Sentiment by currency
USD+EUR JPY~GBP~Composite USD score: +0.35
Sources & References
How we cover this story
Other coverage on this pair
Euro: Further gains eyed toward 1.1800 against US Dollar – UOB
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Morning briefing: EUR/USD is expected to regain momentum above 1.1700
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