Morning briefing: EUR/USD is expected to regain momentum above 1.1700
EUR/USD is positioned to regain bullish momentum as it eyes the critical 1.1700 level. This threshold, if breached, may trigger significant speculative flows, particularly against a backdrop of diverging monetary policies between the ECB and the Fed. Currently at 1.1446, traders will be looking for confirmatory signals from upcoming economic releases to validate further upside potential.
Where it sits in our coverage
Our consensus EUR/USD target is at 1.1700 (median across 12 firms), with HSBC and Nomura along the higher end, and CIBC forecasting a more aggressive 1.1866 for March 2026. The prevailing sentiment aligns with bullish forecasts but indicates a range of views with targets spanning from 1.1000 to 1.2300.
How firms align
Notable bullish positions include RBC, projecting 1.1700 for March 2026, and Investec at 1.1455 for the same tenor, both supporting the notion of potential upward momentum. In contrast, Lloyds remains cautious with a March 2026 target of 1.1331, reflecting a more skeptical outlook on EUR/USD strength.
What the data shows
Recent forecast revisions from UOB and Rabobank reflect a growing optimism, with UOB adjusting their March target to 1.1759 and Rabobank aligning at 1.1700. Insights from our prior research (/research/eurusd-ecb-rate-path-2026-08-24) highlight the importance of the ECB's rate trajectory as a driving factor for EUR/USD movements.
How firms align with this view
Aligned with the headline view
Contrary positioning
Key takeaways
- 01EUR/USD poised to move above 1.1700 — key breakout level.
- 02Traders eye ECB and Fed divergence for future volatility.
- 03Watch upcoming economic indicators for directional cues.
- 04Support seen from firms like RBC and Investec with bullish targets.
Market implications
Upcoming snaps of economic data could serve as catalysts for EUR/USD, particularly if jobless claims or inflation figures show signs of divergence that favor the Euro. The consensus of 1.1700 will be significant to watch during this period.
Risks to this view
A surprising hawkish pivot from the Fed or significantly poor economic data from the Eurozone could cause a repricing of EUR/USD expectations, potentially reversing the current bullish sentiment. A move below 1.1300 could signal increased bearish sentiment.
Sentiment by currency
USD EUR+JPY~GBP~Composite USD score: -0.30
Sources & References
How we cover this story
Other coverage on this pair
Euro: Further gains eyed toward 1.1800 against US Dollar – UOB
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Euro gains support amid hawkish ECB expectations, subdued US Dollar
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