EUR/USD Price Forecast: 20-day EMA acts as key barrier near 1.1460
The EUR/USD pair faces a significant resistance level near 1.1460, as highlighted by the 20-day EMA. Any move above this threshold could signal a renewed bullish sentiment, although market participants remain cautious given that current trading is at 1.1434. With mixed forecasts from various institutions, traders should be on alert for why this technical barrier is critical and could pivot sentiment in the short term.
Where it sits in our coverage
Our consensus EUR/USD target stands at 1.1700 (median across 12 firms), with Goldman at the upper bound (1.2000) and Citi at the lower (1.1300). The current spot price indicates a proximity to resistance levels currently being tested by the pair. FXStreet's observation about the 20-day EMA acting as a barrier aligns with our view as the market hovers near that threshold.
How firms align
Goldman and HSBC reflect a bullish outlook, with targets of 1.1800 for March and 1.1700 respectively, suggesting optimism leading into the next quarter. Conversely, Citi’s projections at 1.1300 for March indicate a more bearish sentiment, which diverges from the overall bullish consensus. Citi's stance is noted in our reports under /reports/citi.
What the data shows
Recent revisions indicate a stronger conviction among several firms for higher EUR/USD targets, such as MUFG increasing their March target to 1.1800 and Goldman to 1.1800 as well. Our published research highlights the divergence in expectations, specifically in /research/eurusd-ecb-rate-path, noting that the EUR/USD sits 4.82% below the December consensus of 1.200.
How firms align with this view
Aligned with the headline view
Contrary positioning
Key takeaways
- 01Key resistance at 1.1460 needs to be broken for bullish momentum.
- 02Watch for a test of the 20-day EMA as a critical support level.
- 03A break above 1.15 could trigger new buying interest.
- 04A cautious trading environment may prevail ahead of key data releases.
Market implications
Traders should focus on the critical 1.1460 level in the near term, with any breakthrough likely to generate added bullish momentum. Upcoming economic indicators could also catalyze movement, particularly if they diverge from expectations.
Risks to this view
Any significant economic data that underscores the USD's strength could invalidate this bullish view, particularly if it pushes EUR/USD below the 1.1400 mark. A hawkish turn from the ECB could further complicate the outlook.
Sentiment by currency
USD~EUR~JPY~GBP~Composite USD score: +0.00
Sources & References
How we cover this story
Other coverage on this pair
Euro: Upside bias capped by nearby resistance against US Dollar – UOB
EUR/USD Price Forecast: Euro stalls below 1.1475 despite US Dollar weakness
Euro: Rallies seen tiring below 1.16 against US Dollar – ING
EUR/USD momentum appears limited above 1.16, suggesting near-term resistance may cap further euro strength against dollar.