Euro rises to near 1.1455 against US Dollar as weak US NFP batters US Dollar
The Euro has rallied to 1.1455 against the US Dollar following a disappointing Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report from the US, which has heightened fears around potential Fed rate cuts. This development underscores the weakening demand for the USD, as market participants reassess the currency's appeal in light of a dovish policy shift. The surging Euro suggests growing optimism in the Eurozone's economic resilience compared to the US, a narrative reinforced by the variance in growth and inflation targets.
Where it sits in our coverage
Our consensus EUR/USD target currently sits at 1.1700 (median across firms), with Scotiabank at the upper bound (1.1734) and Citi at the lower end (1.1300). FXStreet's outlook aligns with a bullish sentiment toward the Euro, indicating potential further upward trajectory as macroeconomic conditions evolve.
How firms align
Several firms support a bullish stance on the Euro. Scotiabank has a target of 1.1734 for March 2026, while MUFG is pointing even higher at 1.1800. In contrast, Citi's more conservative forecast rests at 1.1300, reflecting a less optimistic view. For detailed insights, see our /reports/scotiabank and /reports/mufg pages for further analysis.
What the data shows
Recent forecast revisions indicate bullish sentiment, particularly from MUFG, which recently increased its EUR target to 1.1800. This movement aligns well with our previous published research, highlighting the significant divergence from the ECB's rate path detailed in /research/eurusd-ecb-rate-path.
How firms align with this view
Aligned with the headline view
Contrary positioning
Key takeaways
- 01EUR/USD hits 1.1455 as market reacts to weak US NFP data.
- 02Bearish sentiment for the USD reigns amid rate cut speculations.
- 03Key resistance now looms around 1.1500 level.
- 04Next Fed meeting could catalyze further USD weakness.
Market implications
Traders should closely monitor the 1.1500 level for potential resistance. Upcoming economic data releases, including inflation readings and the next Fed meeting, could significantly impact sentiment and positioning ahead of our consensus target of 1.1700.
Risks to this view
A stronger-than-expected employment report or aggressive Fed communication could reverse the current bearish USD momentum. Additionally, any adverse geopolitical developments in Europe could dampen the bullish outlook for the Euro.
Sentiment by currency
USD EUR+JPY~GBP~Composite USD score: -0.65
Sources & References
How we cover this story
Other coverage on this pair
Euro: Upside bias capped by resistance against US Dollar – UOB
EUR/USD faces structural resistance, suggesting USD strength persists despite temporary euro rallies.
EUR/USD Price Forecast: Trades cautiously higher near mid-1.1400s amid mixed setup
Euro: Downside bias builds into NFP against US Dollar – MUFG
Market positioning ahead of US NFP suggests EUR/USD vulnerability on stronger-than-expected employment data, which would support USD strength and widen Fed/ECB policy divergence.
EUR/USD Price Forecasts: Nears weekly top at 1.1435 with bearish momentum easing
Easing bearish momentum near weekly resistance at 1.1435 suggests consolidation risk; watch for break above to confirm EUR recovery or fade into support.
Bank desks on this topic
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