EUR/USD Price Forecast: A bullish comeback seems underway
EUR/USD is showing signs of a bullish reversal as technical indicators suggest an upward shift is imminent. The recent price action signals potential support at the 1.0900 level, aligning with broader bullish sentiment towards the euro as it regains momentum. With the current spot at 1.1419, market participants are closely watching key resistance levels and sentiment shifts that could further influence direction. This recovery is particularly relevant given the recent revisions in forecasts from several firms, highlighting an optimistic outlook for the euro against the dollar.
Where it sits in our coverage
Our consensus EUR/USD target currently stands at 1.1700 (median across multiple firms), with Commerzbank positioned at the upper end of this forecast range at 1.1900, while TMG reports a more conservative target of 1.1450. The prevailing bullish view expressed by the current spot price suggests that the market aligns closely with the sentiment emerging from recent analyses.
How firms align
Notable firms such as Deutsche Bank and Morgan Stanley have posted targets of 1.1800 and 1.2000 for March 2026, indicating a constructive outlook on EUR/USD that resonates with the bullish indications discussed in the sourcing article. Conversely, BofA offers a more cautious perspective with a 1.1700 target for that time frame, suggesting differentiation in market positioning across analyses.
What the data shows
Recent forecast adjustments have seen firms like BofA adjusting their March target upwards to 1.1700, underpinning a general shift towards a more optimistic sentiment for the euro. Insights from our published research underscore these positive trends with titles such as "EUR/USD Consensus vs Spot: Week of July 30, 2026" highlighting the current trading dynamics and positioning.
How firms align with this view
Aligned with the headline view
Contrary positioning
Key takeaways
- 01EUR/USD shows a recovery setup with current price at 1.1419.
- 02Watch for momentum indicators at 1.0900 for sustained upside potential.
- 03Forecast revisions show a consensus bullish sentiment across multiple firms.
- 04RBC and Deutsche Bank signal a constructive shift towards 1.1800 and above.
Market implications
The key level to monitor going forward is the 1.0900 support. If EUR/USD maintains above this, momentum may continue to build towards higher targets noted across the consensus. Upcoming U.S. economic data releases can impact the dollar's strength; thus, positioning ahead of these events is crucial.
Risks to this view
A reversal of this view could occur if significant U.S. data surprises to the upside, fundamentally skewing USD sentiment. Additionally, unexpected changes in ECB policy signals could also challenge the bullish outlook for the euro.
Sentiment by currency
USD EUR+JPY~GBP~Composite USD score: -0.45
Sources & References
How we cover this story
Other coverage on this pair
Euro: Data-driven range trade into Q3 against US Dollar – ING
EUR/USD likely consolidating within established range pending macro data releases that will drive Q3 direction.
Euro: Fed split supports EUR against US Dollar – Commerzbank
Fed dissent narrows terminal rate conviction, reducing USD yield support and tilting EUR/USD technical bias higher near-term.
Euro: Options signal downside risk against US Dollar – Scotiabank
Options market positioning reflects material EUR/USD downside tail risk; near-term technical support levels merit elevated monitoring for break scenarios.