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EUR/USD spot at 1.1450 trades 0.65% below the 30-firm full EUR/USD bank forecast table consensus median of 1.1525 for December 2026, with a 0.20-figure dispersion between the most bullish and most bearish published targets — a spread wide enough to make the aggregate number nearly meaningless as a trading anchor.
Key Numbers
- Live spot (July 30, 2026): 1.1450
- Cross-firm consensus median (Dec-26): 1.1525
- Dispersion (max − min, 30 firms): 0.20
- Gap, spot vs consensus: −0.65%
- Most bullish: Deutsche Bank at 1.3000
- Most bearish: Citi at 1.1000
| Firm | Dec-2026 target | Stance |
|---|---|---|
| Citi | 1.1000 | bearish |
| HSBC | 1.1000 | bullish |
| Danske Bank | 1.1100 | neutral |
| Lloyds | 1.1200 | neutral |
| Scotiabank | 1.1200 | neutral |
| Goldman Sachs | 1.1200 | bullish |
| ING | 1.1300 | neutral |
| Rabobank | 1.1400 | neutral |
| Société Générale | 1.1400 | bullish |
| BofA | 1.1240 | bullish |
| UOB | 1.1450 | neutral |
| TMGM | 1.1450 | neutral |
| MUFG | 1.1800 | bullish |
| Nomura | 1.2000 | bullish |
Why does EUR/USD spot sit below a bullish consensus?
The aggregate bias across 30 desks is bullish — the median Dec-26 target of 1.1525 implies further EUR appreciation from current levels — yet spot has not followed. Three macro drivers explain why consensus tilted higher in the first place, and why the gap has not closed.
Front-end rate spreads. Nomura, with the highest target among the 14 recently updated desks at 1.2000, anchors its call on a compression of 2-year EUR/USD rate differentials. The desk argues that the Fed's easing cycle has further to run than markets price, narrowing the yield advantage that has historically kept the dollar bid. If the 2-year spread fails to compress — whether because Fed cuts are delayed or the ECB moves faster than Nomura expects — the 1.2000 target looks exposed.
ECB terminal-rate path. MUFG (target 1.1800, bullish) frames its call around the ECB holding rates higher for longer than the consensus ECB path implies, supporting EUR carry. The desk sees the Governing Council reluctant to cut aggressively given sticky services inflation in the eurozone periphery. That view has held up in the rates market, but the FX market has been slower to reprice — hence spot lagging the MUFG target by roughly three figures.
Terminal-rate dispersion. The 0.20-figure gap between Deutsche Bank's 1.3000 and Citi's 1.1000 is not noise; it reflects genuine disagreement about where both central banks ultimately settle. Citi's bearish 1.1000 target rests on a view that the eurozone growth differential versus the US remains negative through year-end, keeping EUR on the back foot regardless of rate path. That is the polar opposite of the Nomura and MUFG frameworks, and the 0.20 dispersion is the arithmetic result.
Which desks are the outliers, and what would it take to move them?
Deutsche Bank's 1.3000 — the highest target across all 30 firms — sits 0.1550 above spot and 0.1475 above the consensus median. It is an outlier by any reasonable definition, and its inclusion pulls the dispersion figure to 0.20. Without that anchor, the effective range of the 14 recently updated desks runs from 1.1000 to 1.2000, still a wide 0.10.
At the other end, Citi and HSBC share the 1.1000 floor, though their stances diverge sharply: Citi is explicitly bearish, while HSBC is classified bullish at the same level — a reminder that target levels and directional stances do not always map cleanly when desks are updating at different frequencies.
Lloyds and Scotiabank both sit at 1.1200 with neutral stances, implying modest EUR downside from spot. BofA is notable: the desk lowered its target to 1.1240 from 1.1500, a meaningful revision that signals deteriorating conviction in the EUR recovery narrative at that house. That revision alone shifts the consensus median, even if only marginally across 30 firms.
For the bullish consensus to converge toward spot — rather than spot rising to meet consensus — at least one of three things would need to happen: the Fed signals a shallower easing path than currently priced, pushing 2-year spreads back in the dollar's favour; eurozone PMI data deteriorates enough to force the ECB back toward a more dovish posture; or the growth differential that Citi cites as its core bearish driver widens materially. Any of those outcomes would likely trigger target cuts at the more optimistic desks, pulling the median toward current spot rather than the reverse.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the current EUR/USD consensus forecast for December 2026?
The 30-firm median target for December 2026 is 1.1525, implying modest upside from the July 30, 2026 spot rate of 1.1450.
How wide is the disagreement across banks?
Dispersion — measured as the difference between the highest and lowest published Dec-26 targets across all 30 firms — stands at 0.20 figures, with Deutsche Bank at 1.3000 and Citi at 1.1000 marking the extremes.
Which bank is most bullish on EUR/USD right now?
Deutsche Bank carries the highest Dec-26 target at 1.3000, well above both spot and the consensus median of 1.1525.
How far is spot from the consensus median?
Spot at 1.1450 is 0.65% below the 30-firm consensus median of 1.1525 — a gap that, while not large in absolute terms, has persisted without closing through the week of July 30, 2026.
→ See the full Nomura FX outlook for the complete rationale behind the 1.2000 Dec-26 target and the rate-spread framework underpinning it.
Read next
Firms covered in this article
Bank Forecast
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Lloyds →
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Rabobank →
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Uob →
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Societe Generale →
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Citi →
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MUFG →
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Tmgm →
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Scotiabank →
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Danskebank →
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