EUR/USD Price Forecast: Bears crack 100-day SMA, eye 1.1500
The EUR/USD pair has recently broken below the 100-day simple moving average, intensifying bearish sentiment. This technical breach suggests that bears are targeting the 1.1500 level as the next significant downside marker, highlighting a potential shift in momentum. Current market dynamics favor the USD, especially as many analysts adjust their forecasts downward for EUR against the dollar. This development could mean a recalibration of risk strategies in upcoming trading sessions.
Where it sits in our coverage
Our consensus EUR/USD target stands at 1.1700 (median across 12 firms), with Morgan Stanley positioned as the most bullish at 1.2000 while Danske Bank holds the lowest target at 1.1100. This disparity underlines divided expectations among analysts regarding the euro's resilience against the USD.
How firms align
Firms like Scotiabank (1.1734) and HSBC (1.1700) reflect alignment with the bearish sentiment illustrated in the headline, while UOB’s projection at 1.1536 hints at caution in near-term EUR strength. Our reports on firms like UBS and RBC reveal a potential tension as both maintain higher targets reflecting a more optimistic view in the medium term. [See /research/eurusd-ecb-rate-path for more detail.]
What the data shows
Recent revisions indicate some analysts are adjusting their targets lower, with Credit Agricole at 1.1584 and Scotiabank at 1.1734. This trend is reflected in our analysis of EUR/USD, where our consensus view emphasizes divergence in expectations compared to spot pricing, detailed in /research/eurusd-ecb-rate-path-2026-09-15.
How firms align with this view
Aligned with the headline view
Contrary positioning
Key takeaways
- 01EUR/USD broke below 100-day SMA at 1.1500; bearish outlook prevails.
- 02Watch for further downside momentum; euro weakness is a key theme.
- 031.1500 holds critical support; break below could accelerate selling.
- 04Analysts are adjusting targets; consensus points to a shifting landscape.
Market implications
Traders should monitor the 1.1500 level closely, as a sustained breach could lead to increased bearish positioning. Upcoming economic releases and central bank signals will further dictate market sentiment, especially with our consensus target at 1.1700 indicating broader expectations.
Risks to this view
Should the EUR find support above the 100-day SMA or if unexpected intrinsic factors surface within the Eurozone, this bearish outlook could be invalidated. Strong economic data or a shift in ECB policy direction might prompt a reassessment of current bearish sentiment.
Sentiment by currency
USD+EUR JPY~GBP~Composite USD score: +0.65
Sources & References
How we cover this story
Other coverage on this pair
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