EUR/USD Price Forecast: Bullish bias remains above 1.1600 ahead of ECB and US inflation
The EUR/USD pair is currently testing the bullish bias above the 1.1600 mark, suggesting that traders are positioning for either a dovish stance from the European Central Bank (ECB) or softer-than-expected US inflation data. With the current spot at 1.1446, the market is keenly awaiting upcoming data events that could impact sentiment. This situation is critical as it highlights the ongoing divergence between the ECB's potential policy stance and the US economic outlook ahead of key data next week.
Where it sits in our coverage
Our consensus EUR/USD target sits at 1.1700 (median across various firms), with CIBC and Morgan Stanley targeting the upper range at 1.1866 and 1.2000, respectively. Notably, the current price at 1.1446 positions the market below this consensus, indicating potential for upward adjustment if the ECB leans dovish as anticipated.
How firms align
Notably, RBC and HSBC align with market sentiment at 1.1700 for March 2026, closely mirroring the prevailing bullish outlook. On the contrary, firms like Stanchart hold a more restrained target of 1.1400, suggesting less optimism in the pair's immediate trajectory, as detailed in our individual reports such as /research/eurusd-ecb-rate-path.
What the data shows
Recent revisions include Mizuho, which forecasted 1.1800 for March, reinforcing the bullish context. Additionally, our piece on /research/eurusd-ecb-rate-path-2026-09-08 highlights the existing divergence with current spot prices compared to consensus projections, emphasizing the potential for a shift depending on upcoming data announcements.
How firms align with this view
Aligned with the headline view
Contrary positioning
Key takeaways
- 01Bullish bias above 1.1600 suggests traders anticipate dovish ECB or soft US CPI.
- 02Positioning for ECB influences demand for EUR, watch for movement around 1.1600.
- 03Key data events next week could lead to volatility; levels above 1.1700 will be critical.
- 04Market dynamics hinge on ECB's policy stance and US inflation outcomes.
Market implications
Traders should watch the key resistance level at 1.1700 alongside upcoming data releases on inflation and ECB guidance. Positioning ahead of these events could drive the EUR/USD pair higher if the forecasts materialize as expected. Current spot at 1.1446 remains a backdrop for potential bullish adjustments depending on the data flow.
Risks to this view
This bullish view could be invalidated if the ECB signals a more hawkish approach than anticipated, or if US inflation figures surprise to the upside, reinforcing dollar strength. Such shifts could swiftly push the EUR/USD below the 1.1600 mark, necessitating a reevaluation of current forecasts.
Sentiment by currency
USD EUR+JPY~GBP~Composite USD score: -0.30
Sources & References
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