EUR/USD Price Forecast: Buyers seek a decisive break above the 200-day SMA
EUR/USD is testing a critical juncture as buyers aim for a sustained breach of the 200-day SMA, which could set the tone for a bullish trend. The current structure indicates upward momentum, aligning with recent forecasts calling for a potential rally. Achieving this technical breakout is vital for confirming the bullish outlook and attracting further buying interest in the pair.
Where it sits in our coverage
Our current consensus EUR/USD target is set at 1.1700 (median across firms), indicating a bullish sentiment aligned with market movements. Individual firm targets show variability, with RBC at the upper end (1.2000) and Lloyds at the lower end (1.1200).
How firms align
Several firms, including RBC and Morgan Stanley, reflect a positive outlook consistent with the headline, targeting 1.2000 for March 2026. Conversely, Danish Bank's projections diverge, indicating potential bearish perspectives with a target of 1.1200 in the same timeframe.
What the data shows
Recent revisions from firms such as Scotiabank and Mizuho reinforce the bullish sentiment, with updates positioning their targets at 1.1734 and 1.1800 respectively. For additional context, see our insights in /research/eurusd-ecb-rate-path-2026-09-09.
How firms align with this view
Aligned with the headline view
Contrary positioning
Key takeaways
- 01Watch for a breakout above the 200-day SMA to confirm bullish momentum.
- 02Traders should look for buying opportunities if price sustains above the 1.1500 level.
- 03Potential catalysts include upcoming ECB communications and economic data releases.
- 04Monitor revisions from firms; upward adjustments could signal increasing confidence.
Market implications
Next key levels to watch include the psychological barrier at 1.1500, with the consensus target of 1.1700 setting the tone for bullish expectations. Any signs of sustained pressure above this threshold will heighten buying interest across the market.
Risks to this view
A reversal in this outlook could occur if the price significantly breaks below the 1.1400 support level. Catalysts such as unexpected ECB hawkishness or deteriorating economic conditions could prompt a shift in sentiment.
Sentiment by currency
USD EUR+JPY~GBP~Composite USD score: -0.40
Sources & References
How we cover this story