EUR/USD Price Forecast: Fresh downside likely if sustain below 1.1455
The EUR/USD pair has recently slipped below the critical 1.1455 level, signaling potential downside momentum according to market analysts. This dip suggests an opportunity for further downside acceleration toward the significant support level at 1.1350, especially with the current sentiment showing the dollar in a bullish light while the euro remains under pressure. The fragile state of the euro indicates that traders should be cautious as these developments unfold, particularly in light of the latest consensus forecasts.
Where it sits in our coverage
Our consensus EUR/USD target stands at 1.1684 (median across several firms), with Scotiabank at the upper end of the range (1.1734) and Lloyds at a more bearish 1.1331. The outlook reflects a divergence in market sentiment, with some firms maintaining more optimistic expectations despite recent price action.
How firms align
Firms like SocGen have a more bullish long-term view with a March target of 1.1700, closely aligning with the latest analysis around the 1.1455 pivot. In contrast, firms like Stanchart appear slightly more cautious, forecasting 1.1400 for March, suggesting awareness of potential risks around this level. [Review firm positions at /research/socgen, /research/stanchart].
What the data shows
Recent forecast revisions indicate a tightening of the expected EUR/USD range, notably with BNP Paribas adjusting their short-term forecast to 1.1600. Research highlights the continuing divergence in views across firms, which could be key for traders monitoring this pair in the near term, as detailed in /research/eurusd-ecb-rate-path-2026-09-18.
How firms align with this view
Aligned with the headline view
Contrary positioning
Key takeaways
- 01Break below 1.1455 indicates potential for further declines.
- 02Focus on monitoring support at 1.1350 for potential bounce.
- 03Recent revisions signal growing caution from major firms.
- 04European economic indicators could impact euro's trajectory.
Market implications
Traders should keep an eye on support around 1.1350 as a potential trigger for a reversal, but sustained weakness below 1.1455 could reinforce bearish sentiment. Upcoming economic data releases from the Eurozone may further impact the pair, reflecting our consensus target of 1.1684.
Risks to this view
A stronger-than-expected economic report from the Eurozone or a shift in Fed policy could invalidate the current bearish outlook on the euro. Additionally, if the EUR/USD recovers above 1.1455, it would suggest a potential for a reversal, countering recent trends.
Sentiment by currency
USD+EUR JPY~GBP~Composite USD score: +0.65
Sources & References
How we cover this story
Other coverage on this pair
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