EUR/USD Price Forecast: Gains ground above 1.1150, while retaining bearish bias below 100-day SMA
The EUR/USD pair is currently trading around 1.1160, buoyed by a hawkish outlook from the ECB, which encourages consolidation above the 1.1150 mark. While this supports short-term positive sentiment for the Euro, concerns linger as prices remain below the crucial 100-day SMA, suggesting potential bearish pressures. The market is thus navigating a critical juncture where overcoming this technical barrier could redefine its trajectory in the weeks ahead.
Where it sits in our coverage
Our consensus EUR/USD target is 1.1700 for March 2026 based on aggregated firm predictions, with CIBC at the high end (1.1866) and Lloyds at the lower spectrum (1.1284). The recent bullish sentiment from the market is reflected in these targets, particularly after the ECB's hawkish messaging in light of ongoing inflationary pressures.
How firms align
Support for the bullish thesis comes from firms like RBC and Nomura, both forecasting 1.1700 for March 2026, indicating alignment with the headline's view. In contrast, HSBC takes a more conservative stance with a target of 1.1000 by December 2026, suggesting a divergence from the more optimistic outlook.
What the data shows
Recent revisions highlight an upward trend, with UBS raising its forecast to 1.2000 for March 2026. Furthermore, our past research captures the market's alignment around the 1.14 consensus, showing a consistent bullish narrative since prices have been trading below this level for some time. See /research/eurusd-ecb-rate-path for more details.
How firms align with this view
Aligned with the headline view
Contrary positioning
Key takeaways
- 01EUR/USD holds above 1.1150; a break above the 100-day SMA is critical for bullish continuation.
- 02A hawkish ECB may support Euro strength against the Dollar in the near term.
- 03Watch for ECB signaling on interest rates as a key catalyst for price movement.
- 04Firm target divergences hint at mixed sentiment heading into the next quarter.
Market implications
Traders should closely monitor the 100-day SMA resistance level for potential breakouts. Upcoming ECB communications will be pivotal, as they could either reinforce or undermine current bullish expectations. Our consensus targeting 1.1700 highlights the anticipated strength ahead if conditions align.
Risks to this view
A reversal could occur if the ECB unexpectedly shifts to a more dovish stance, particularly if economic indicators show signs of slowing growth. Any significant deviation from inflation targets could also lead to downward pressure on the Euro.
Sentiment by currency
USD EUR+JPY~GBP~Composite USD score: -0.35
Sources & References
How we cover this story
Other coverage on this pair
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