Technical outlook: Gold, GBP/USD, EUR/USD [Video]
The upcoming US CPI and PPI releases are crucial events to watch, impacting currency dynamics and bolstering volatility expectations in the FX markets. Our analysis indicates that the current neutral sentiment across major currencies could shift depending on inflation readings, particularly affecting EUR/USD trading positions. With the market eyeing inflation indicators this week, movement towards key technical levels may influence trader positioning ahead of these critical data points.
Where it sits in our coverage
The current consensus target for EUR/USD stands at 1.1400 for December 2026 (median across 11 firms), reflecting a spread from 1.1000 at HSBC to 1.2200 from CIBC. This positioning suggests a generally bullish outlook, albeit tempered by uncertainty surrounding upcoming data releases.
How firms align
Firms such as RBC and Mizuho lean toward a more bullish perspective, placing their March 2026 targets at 1.1600 and 1.1300, respectively, closely aligning with the forthcoming CPI expectations. Meanwhile, HSBC adopts a more cautious approach with its lower targets, positioning at 1.1000 for December 2026, indicating a bearish outlook relative to our commentary.
What the data shows
Recent forecast revisions have seen a slight uptick with Scotiabank and Rabobank adjusting their March targets to 1.1734 and 1.1759, respectively. This aligns with our previous insights discussing consensus divergence, as highlighted in /research/eurusd-ecb-rate-path-2026-11-08, where broader consensus reflects a commitment to higher levels in light of upcoming inflation data.
How firms align with this view
Aligned with the headline view
Contrary positioning
Key takeaways
- 01Current consensus target for EUR/USD is 1.1400 for December 2026.
- 02Watch for a significant reaction to CPI data that could set directional trades.
- 03Inflation data upcoming could drive EUR/USD close to 1.1500 resistance level.
- 04The broader market sentiment remains cautious ahead of important economic indicators.
Market implications
Attention will be on the inflation data on Tuesday, which may influence EUR/USD volatility. The consensus target of 1.1400 is critical; a break above 1.1500 could trigger renewed bullish momentum if inflation comes in lower than expected.
Risks to this view
An unexpected spike in CPI figures could invalidate the current bullish sentiment, leading to a sharper decline in EUR/USD if inflationary pressures signal a stronger-than-anticipated Fed response. Such data revisions could shift sentiment rapidly.
Sentiment by currency
USD~EUR~JPY~GBP~Composite USD score: +0.00
Sources & References
How we cover this story
Other coverage on this pair
EUR/USD: Oil relief but fiscal risks linger – BBH
Lower oil prices reduce Eurozone stagflation risk, supporting EUR/USD recovery toward 1.1200, though fiscal headwinds remain a ceiling.
EUR/USD Price Forecast: Gains ground above 1.1150, while retaining bearish bias below 100-day SMA
ECB hawkish messaging supports EUR consolidation above 1.1150, though break above 100-day SMA needed to confirm directional conviction.
Morning briefing: EUR/USD may trade within 1.1100–1.1250
Stronger-than-expected NFP data increases December Fed hike probability, supporting USD strength and EUR/USD downside toward 1.1100 support.