Morning briefing: EUR/USD may trade within 1.1100–1.1250
The Dollar Index surged following a stronger-than-expected NFP report, increasing expectations for a 25bps rate hike in December. As a result, EUR/USD may fluctuate within the 1.1100–1.1250 range, as suggested by fxstreet.com. Our internal analysis, however, posits a current spot price at 1.1373, notably above that range, indicating a potential misalignment between market sentiment and consensus expectations for the Euro. This divergence highlights key market dynamics that could shape the currency pair in the coming weeks.
Where it sits in our coverage
Our consensus EUR/USD target currently stands at 1.1400 (median across 12 firms), with the upper bound at 1.2000 from RBC and the lower bound at 1.1000 from HSBC. In contrast, fxstreet.com's analysis points to a tighter projected range of 1.1100–1.1250, suggesting a cautious market stance.
How firms align
Firms such as RBC and Commerzbank project higher levels of 1.2000 and 1.2200 for March 2026, indicating a bullish outlook that contrasts with the cautious sentiment suggested in the headline. However, HSBC is more pessimistic, projecting a lower target of 1.1000 for December 2026, reflecting a split in outlook among major institutions.
What the data shows
Recent forecast revisions have seen an increase in targets, with data from ubs reflecting a high of 1.2000 for March 2026. Further insights can be referenced in our publication /research/eurusd-ecb-rate-path-2026-11-08.
How firms align with this view
Aligned with the headline view
Contrary positioning
Key takeaways
- 01Current spot for EUR/USD is 1.1373, above the suggested 1.1100–1.1250 range.
- 02The market reaction to NFP data is pushing the dollar higher against the Euro.
- 03Caution is advised as firms project varying targets; watch for shifts around upcoming economic data.
Market implications
Next, traders should monitor the December Fed meeting and subsequent economic indicators closely, as these will be crucial for shaping the EUR/USD outlook. The consensus target of 1.1400 may serve as a significant pivot point.
Risks to this view
A reversal in this outlook could occur if the anticipated rate hike fails to materialize or if significant economic data undermines current expectations. A shift in ECB policy towards tightening could also alter market sentiment in favor of the Euro.
Sentiment by currency
USD+EUR JPY~GBP~Composite USD score: +0.65
Sources & References
How we cover this story
Other coverage on this pair
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