EUR/USD Price Forecast: Gains ground to near 1.1600, bullish vibe prevails above 100-day SMA
The EUR/USD has strengthened toward the 1.1600 level as bullish sentiment persists, especially with the pairing trading above the 100-day SMA. This technical resilience suggests continued interest in the euro, potentially buoyed by a favorable outlook for the ECB's monetary policy relative to that of the Fed. Current sentiment is reflective of broader market dynamics, where traders are recalibrating expectations amid evolving economic narratives.
Where it sits in our coverage
Our consensus EUR/USD target stands at 1.1700 (median across 11 firms), with UBS positioning at the upper bound (1.2000) and Lloyds at the lower end (1.1288). The headline's focus on a bullish trend aligns well with this perspective, indicating a potential for further upward movement from current levels.
How firms align
Several firms reflect a bullish sentiment consistent with the headline's view, including RBC with a Mar26 target at 1.1600, and Stanchart at 1.1600 as well. Both suggest a corridor for further appreciation. In contrast, Lloyds maintains a more cautious stance at 1.1331 for Mar26, highlighting a divergence in outlook among analysts.
What the data shows
Recent revisions from Morgan Stanley adjusted their Mar26 target to 1.2000, signaling an optimistic outlook, while ING supports a stable target of 1.1700. More context on this can be found in our latest insights: /research/eurusd-ecb-rate-path-2026-08-30, which discusses the sentiment around the EUR/USD positioning.
How firms align with this view
Aligned with the headline view
Contrary positioning
Key takeaways
- 01EUR/USD aims at 1.1600, bullish sentiment driven by ECB outlook.
- 02Current spot trends upward past 100-day SMA, signaling trader confidence.
- 03Watch for a confirmation of the bullish trend as momentum builds around 1.1700.
Market implications
Traders should monitor the 1.1600 resistance level closely; a sustained break could unlock further ascension towards our consensus target of 1.1700. Additionally, upcoming ECB comments will likely play a pivotal role in shaping market sentiment.
Risks to this view
A reversal could be triggered by unexpected dovish signals from the ECB or stronger-than-anticipated economic data from the U.S., which could reinforce the dollar's appeal and push EUR/USD back towards lower targets.
Sources & References
How we cover this story
Other coverage on this pair
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