EUR/USD retreats from highs while key support holds firm
The EUR/USD pair has receded from recent highs as it tests key support levels. Current trading around 1.1446 reflects ongoing market apprehension, despite some stability in support. This retreat underscores the balance between eurozone economic resilience and pressures on the dollar, influencing traders' strategies ahead of critical economic releases.
Where it sits in our coverage
Our consensus EUR/USD target stands at 1.1700 (median across firms), with UBS and Morgan Stanley placing the upper bounds at 1.2000, while Lloyds indicates a more cautious target at 1.1331. This positioning suggests a mix of bullish and conservative outlooks, reflecting diverse market sentiments.
How firms align
Investec and ING both align closely with the consensus, projecting targets of 1.1455 and 1.1700 respectively for Mar26, which supports viewing current levels as a potential buying opportunity. On the contrary, Stanchart's more bearish target of 1.1400 for the same tenor presents a cautious outlook against the current support levels, as detailed in our internal reports.
What the data shows
Recent forecast revisions indicate Morgan Stanley's bullish adjustment to 1.2000 for Mar26, reflecting a growing conviction among firms about potential dollar weakness. This sentiment is echoed in our published research, particularly in the insight on the ECB's rate path updates (/research/eurusd-ecb-rate-path-2026-08-30).
How firms align with this view
Aligned with the headline view
Contrary positioning
Key takeaways
- 01EUR/USD currently at 1.1446, holding above key support.
- 02Watch for shifts in sentiment as economic data unfolds.
- 03Key resistance at 1.17 remains pivotal for traders.
- 04Support at 1.1400 could signal a breakdown if breached.
Market implications
Upcoming US employment data will be crucial; watch for a break below the 1.1400 support as it may lead to increased bearish positioning. Our consensus target at 1.1700 indicates the market’s expectation for a rebound could be put to the test.
Risks to this view
A substantial improvement in US economic data could strengthen the dollar, undermining the current support levels and possibly triggering a deeper pullback in EUR/USD. Similarly, any shift in ECB policy could impact euro valuation significantly.
Sentiment by currency
USD~EUR~JPY~GBP~Composite USD score: +0.00
Sources & References
How we cover this story
Other coverage on this pair
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