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FX BANK FORECAST · COVERAGE
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Aggregated year-end forecasts, scenario shifts, and curated analyst notes from 37 institutional desks. No promotion.
FX BANK FORECAST · COVERAGE
Aggregated year-end forecasts, scenario shifts, and curated analyst notes from 37 institutional desks. No promotion.
The EUR/USD pair remains under pressure, holding below the 1.1200 mark, with a prevailing bearish tone. Despite current oversold conditions, resistance at this level indicates a potential for further downside before any recovery materializes. This aligns with a broader market sentiment that favors the USD, which continues to exert strength against the Euro.
Our current consensus for EUR/USD stands at 1.1634 (median across 12 firms), with CIBC at the upper bound (1.2200) and TMGN at the lower (1.1447). FXStreet's outlook appears to echo broader bearish sentiments regarding EUR/USD's movements, particularly with resistance observed near the 1.1200 level.
Firms such as Rabobank and SocGen maintain a more bullish stance with targets of 1.1759 and 1.1700 respectively for March 2026, while TMGN and Mizuho remain more cautious with lower targets of 1.1447 and 1.1300. This divergence highlights the uncertainty surrounding the Euro amid current trends, as detailed in our /research/eurusd-ecb-rate-path-2026-10-07 report.
Recent revisions, such as Mizuho's reduction to 1.1500 for March 2026 and Citi's downward adjustment to 1.1300, emphasize the fragility of the Euro's position. Furthermore, our research highlights that the spot price remains significantly below the median consensus of 1.1634, reflecting a consensus gap that traders should consider in their positioning.
How firms align with this view
Aligned with the headline view
Contrary positioning
Key takeaways
Market implications
Next week, traders should keep an eye on the 1.1200 resistance level for potential breakdowns and opportunities to short. Additionally, the upcoming ECB meeting could serve as a catalyst for volatility as it could strongly influence directional trading ahead of our consensus target of 1.1634.
Risks to this view
A reversal of this bearish outlook could occur if the Eurozone shows unexpected economic resilience or if the ECB signals a more hawkish future rate path. Additionally, geopolitical developments could generate volatility, undermining current USD strength.
Sentiment by currency
USD+EUR JPY~GBP~Composite USD score: +0.65
How we cover this story
French sovereign debt concerns create near-term EUR/USD headwind, particularly if spreads widen further versus Bunds.
Technical weakness below 1.1050 suggests near-term consolidation before potential test of 1.10 psychological support; monitor break of 1.1000 for signal of deeper USD strength.
Commerzbank's bearish EUR/USD directional call signals downside risks that may warrant tactical USD longs near resistance levels.
Technical break below 1.1065 EUR/USD could signal broader USD strength; monitor as key pivot for positioning.
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EUR/USD spot sits 3.81% below the 30-firm Dec-26 consensus median of 1.1634, signalling a broadly bullish street view the market has yet to validate.
EUR/USD spot at 1.1243 sits 3.36% below the 30-firm Dec-26 consensus of 1.1634, with a 0.155 dispersion range signalling deep disagreement on the path ahead.
EUR/USD trades 3.71% below the 30-firm median Dec-26 target of 1.1634, leaving a wide consensus-to-spot gap that demands explanation.