Polish MPC remains patient and keeps policy rates on hold in October
Per the full note from ing-think, the National Bank of Poland kept its reference rate at 3.75% in October, and the desk argues this on-hold stance can persist for several months despite headline inflation rising. The MPC attributed the September uptick primarily to fuel prices while core inflation likely edged lower, and it introduced 'regulatory decisions concerning energy prices' as a new risk to the outlook. Analysts Rafal Benecki and Adam Antoniak frame the statement as broadly neutral with a mildly dovish tint, suggesting any tightening cycle would not arrive until 1Q27 — and would be less aggressive than markets currently price. No high-impact events are scheduled for Poland over the next 30 days, meaning the next real catalyst is Governor Glapinski's press conference and the evolution of regulated energy prices. Our internal coverage bundle contains no tracked currency pair for this commentary, so we have no consensus target or per-firm spread to anchor against.
What the desk is arguing
The core thesis from the ING note is that the NBP has room to stay patient: the reference rate remains at 3.75% and policymakers can wait several months before reconsidering. That patience is underpinned by the MPC's own framing — the September inflation bump was driven mainly by fuel costs, not demand-side pressures, and core inflation most likely declined slightly over the same period. The desk reads that combination as a mildly dovish signal beneath an otherwise neutral statement.
The supporting evidence includes a concrete new risk factor the Council flagged: 'regulatory decisions concerning energy prices.' Benecki and Antoniak interpret this as potentially covering both regulated gas and electricity price increases for households — which they expect to be smaller than 2027 futures imply — and government intervention in fuel markets via lowered excise duty and VAT, which would cap gasoline and diesel prices and pull inflation back toward the upper bound of the target range. That regulatory tailwind, if realized, reinforces the case for staying on hold rather than tightening.
The alternative read would treat the fuel-driven inflation spike as a signal that headline pressures are broadening into core, forcing an earlier move. But with core gravitating lower and the Council explicitly citing energy regulation as a moderating factor, the desk is implicitly rejecting that hawkish interpretation in favor of extended patience.
What the calendar says
There are no high-impact Polish events on the calendar over the next 30 days, which leaves the near-term path heavily dependent on Governor Glapinski's press conference tomorrow. Traders should treat that appearance as the primary event risk — any hawkish shift in language around the energy-price risk factor would challenge the desk's patient narrative. Absent that, the data vacuum and the absence of scheduled catalysts mean PLN will likely trade off global risk sentiment and EUR dynamics rather than domestic rate expectations.
Key takeaways
- 01NBP holds reference rate at 3.75% in October, as ING expected, with the MPC statement described as concise and broadly neutral.
- 02September inflation increase attributed mainly to fuel prices while core inflation likely edged lower — a mildly dovish signal per ING.
- 03MPC adds 'regulatory decisions concerning energy prices' as a new risk to the inflation outlook, potentially limiting price jumps.
- 04ING analysts Benecki and Antoniak see room for patience over several months, with any tightening possible in 1Q27 but less aggressive than markets expect.
- 05No high-impact Polish events over the next 30 days; Governor Glapinski's press conference is the nearest catalyst.
Market implications
Watch for any shift in Governor Glapinski's tone at tomorrow's press conference — a hawkish reinterpretation of the energy-price risk would push PLN rates higher and challenge the patient narrative. With no domestic data on the calendar for 30 days, the zloty will trade primarily off EUR/USD and broad risk sentiment, so positioning in EUR/PLN and USD/PLN should be monitored for spillover from those drivers. A sustained drop in core inflation or government intervention that caps fuel prices would validate the desk's on-hold call and likely keep front-end PLN yields anchored.
Risks to this view
A faster-than-expected pass-through from fuel prices into core inflation would force the MPC to tighten earlier than 1Q27, invalidating the patient thesis. Equally, if regulated energy-price increases come in above 2027 futures expectations rather than below, the inflation ceiling would prove higher than ING assumes. Finally, a hawkish surprise from Governor Glapinski tomorrow could accelerate market repricing and force a reversal of the dovish read.
Articles Polish MPC remains patient and keeps policy rates on hold in October Published 16:26 Poland Share X LinkedIn E-mail Copy link Share X LinkedIn E-mail Copy link Download The Monetary Policy Council (MPC) kept the National Bank of Poland (NBP) reference rate unchanged at 3.75% in October, as expected. While inflation has risen, the increase is largely attributable to higher fuel prices. In our view, the current inflation backdrop allows policymakers to remain on hold for several months Rafal Benecki and Adam Antoniak As expected, the National Bank of Poland kept the reference rate at 3.75% NBP rates unchanged As expected, the Monetary Policy Council left National Bank of Poland interest rates unchanged in October.
The reference rate remains at 3.75%. The post-meeting statement remains concise and broadly neutral in tone In the post-meeting statement, the Council noted that the increase in inflation in September was driven mainly by higher fuel prices, while core inflation most likely edged down slightly. In our view, this carries a mildly dovish message.
The Council added a new factor to the list of risks to the inflation outlook: “regulatory decisions concerning energy prices”. This may refer both to likely increases in regulated gas and electricity prices for households, which we believe should be lower than implied by 2027 futures contracts. This factor may also refer to government intervention in the fuel market through lowered excise duty and VAT on fuels, which limits the jump in gasoline and diesel prices and brings inflation back towards the upper bound of the target range.
Monetary tightening possible in 1Q27, but less aggressive than markets expect Tomorrow’s press conference by NBP governor Adam Glapiński should provide more information about the outlook for Poland’s monetary policy. In our view, current price developments give the MPC time to refrain from raising rates for several months and to observe the impact of the energy shock on the Polish economy. Inflation has risen to around 4.0% year-on-year, but this increase is almost entirely attributable to higher fuel prices.
There are no clear signs of broader-based price pressures in the economy. We assume that preventive rate hikes of 25–50bp may take place at the beginning of 2027, as the persistently high energy prices increase the likelihood of second-round effects emerging. So far, this has not yet been seen in Poland but is starting to be present in the Czech Republic.
In addition, developments in the energy market are likely to translate into significant increases in regulated prices, particularly gas tariffs, from the beginning of 2027. The episode of food-price deflation is also coming to an end. In 2027, food-price increases are likely to exceed their long-term average, reflecting poorer harvests and higher fertiliser costs.
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