EUR/USD Price Forecast: Holds gains above 1.1200 yet retains bearish tone below 100-day SMA
The EUR/USD pair is currently holding above 1.1200 at 1.1253, bolstered by a weakening USD amid declining US Treasury yields, as analysts monitor the pair's behavior below the pivotal 100-day SMA. While this level reflects a bullish sentiment, the underlying tone remains cautious as market participants await further economic indicators, particularly from upcoming Fed and ECB decisions. The divergence between monetary policy trajectories in the U.S. and Eurozone could define the pair's movement.
Where it sits in our coverage
Our consensus EUR/USD target currently stands at 1.1700 (median across firms), with Commerzbank at the upper range (1.1900) and Lloyds at the lower end (1.1200). This positions our view slightly more optimistic compared to the headline's bearish undertones, underscoring a potential for upside in the medium term.
How firms align
Rabobank and CIBC have more favorable projections at 1.1759 and 1.1866 for March 2026, respectively, supporting the notion of bullish momentum relative to the current spot. Conversely, firms like Investec have more subdued targets (1.1455), indicating a more cautious stance, reflecting uncertainty in sustained bullish trends. For detailed views, see our internal reports on their forecasts: /research/rabobank, /research/cibc, and /research/investec.
What the data shows
Recent adjustments from various firms, such as MUFG raising its target for March 2026 to 1.1800, suggest optimism is gaining traction in the market. Additionally, our research highlights consistencies in outlooks as seen in /research/eurusd-ecb-rate-path-2026-10-23, further affirming the prevailing sentiment around this currency pair.
How firms align with this view
Aligned with the headline view
Contrary positioning
Key takeaways
- 01EUR/USD trades at 1.1253, above key support at 1.1200.
- 02Watch for market reactions around Fed and ECB meetings next week.
- 03Target revisions indicate upward pressure; anticipate volatility ahead of the events.
- 04Potential headwinds remain, especially below the 100-day SMA.
Market implications
Investors should keep a close eye on the 1.1200 level, as a breakdown could trigger a reevaluation of bullish expectations. The upcoming Fed and ECB meetings on October 28 and 29, respectively, will be critical in shaping short-term market dynamics. Our consensus target of 1.1700 remains a key focus.
Risks to this view
A reversal in this bullish outlook could be triggered if the U.S. labor market data disappoints or if hawkish signals emerge from the Fed, suggesting tighter monetary policy. Additionally, significant surprises in the ECB's stance could shift the momentum in favor of the USD.
Sentiment by currency
USD EUR+JPY~GBP~Composite USD score: -0.35
Sources & References
How we cover this story
Other coverage on this pair
Euro: Seen gradually lower from 1.12 against US Dollar – Danske Bank
Danske Bank's downside EUR/USD bias from 1.12 signals institutional consensus forming around structural euro weakness.
EUR/USD nears a turning point after prolonged consolidation
EUR/USD Weekly Forecast: Next bounce could be a trap
EUR/USD rejection at 1.1260 and consolidation near 1.1200 suggests USD strength persists; bounce-trap narrative implies downside bias remains favored.