Euro: Seen gradually lower from 1.12 against US Dollar – Danske Bank
Danske Bank's forecast suggests a gradual decline for EUR/USD from the current level near 1.12, indicating growing bearish sentiment around the euro. This outlook aligns with the prevailing mood in the institutional space, as traders are increasingly positioning for structural weaknesses in the eurozone economy. The impact of upcoming economic data and monetary policy decisions, particularly from the ECB, will be critical in determining whether this bias gains traction or shifts.
Where it sits in our coverage
Our consensus EUR/USD target currently sits at 1.1500 (median across 10 firms), with Commerzbank at the upper bound (1.2200) and ABN AMRO at the lower bound (1.1284). Danske Bank's perspective aligns with the lower end of this spectrum, highlighting an underlying apprehension shared among several analysts regarding the euro's strength.
How firms align
Among our coverage, firms like Investec and Mizuho reflect more bearish stances with March targets at 1.1455 and 1.1300, respectively, which resonate with Danske Bank's outlook. In contrast, Commerzbank stands out with a more optimistic target of 1.1900 for March 2026, opposing the trend indicated by Danske's forecast.
What the data shows
Recent revisions have also shown a downward adjustment from UBS and MUFG for March 2026, maintaining targets at 1.2000 and 1.1800 respectively, suggesting a consensus tilt toward bearish positions in light of evolving economic conditions. Insights from our research, particularly in /research/ecb-decision-preview-2026-10-29, provide useful context as we approach significant ECB decisions that will influence the euro's trajectory.
How firms align with this view
Contrary positioning
Key takeaways
- 01Expect EUR/USD to potentially test lower levels near 1.12 as sentiment shifts.
- 02Key market focus on ECB meetings, as further insights could influence direction.
- 03Watch for March targets; a break below 1.12 may signal accelerated selling.
- 04Consensus shows wide variance; monitor positioning for shifts in market dynamics.
Market implications
As we look ahead, traders should closely monitor upcoming ECB statements and economic releases, particularly those before the November meeting, which may catalyze price action. The current consensus target of 1.1500 could serve as a critical pivot level for EUR/USD in the short term.
Risks to this view
A reversal of sentiment could occur if the ECB surprises with a more hawkish stance or if economic data points to stronger than expected growth in the eurozone. A move above 1.15 could invalidate the downside bias, prompting reassessments across trading desks.
Sentiment by currency
USD+EUR JPY~GBP~Composite USD score: +0.65
Sources & References
How we cover this story
Other coverage on this pair
EUR/USD Price Forecast: Holds gains above 1.1200 yet retains bearish tone below 100-day SMA
USD weakness driven by falling Treasury yields creates near-term EUR/USD support, but structurally bearish setup below 100-day SMA warrants caution on bounce durability.
EUR/USD nears a turning point after prolonged consolidation
EUR/USD Weekly Forecast: Next bounce could be a trap
EUR/USD rejection at 1.1260 and consolidation near 1.1200 suggests USD strength persists; bounce-trap narrative implies downside bias remains favored.