EUR/USD Price Forecast: Holds gains near 1.1230 on softer USD; bearish bias persists
The EUR/USD pair is currently holding steady around 1.1253, buoyed by a softer USD despite a prevailing bearish bias. The market appears to be grappling with the dichotomy of short-term strength against a backdrop of divergence in future targets, underscoring uncertainty in monetary policy trajectories. While the softening USD has provided a temporary lift, market participants are cautious as forecasts imply a bearish lean, questioning the sustainability of these gains.
Where it sits in our coverage
Our median consensus target for EUR/USD currently sits at 1.1634 (across 13 firms), with a noteworthy range stretching from a bearish 1.1000 (Citi) to a bullish 1.2200 (CIBC) by December 2026. This reflects a significant divergence where expectations are largely skewed towards higher future valuations, especially when aligned with firms like Rabobank and Nomura targeting 1.1759 and 1.1800 respectively.
How firms align
Firms like Rabobank (1.1759, Mar26) and Nomura (1.1700, Mar26) align closely with the more optimistic outlook suggested by the prevalent soft USD. Conversely, firms such as Citi (1.1300, Mar26) and TMGM (1.1447, Mar26) are more reserved, indicating a less aggressive stance on the pair’s near-term potential compared to the headline’s view. For deeper insights, please refer to our analysis published in /research/eurusd-ecb-rate-path.
What the data shows
Recent forecast updates show a shift towards more optimistic projections from firms such as Rabobank, while Mizuho has revised its targets down, indicating fluctuations in sentiment amid broader market dynamics. Key insights on this evolving narrative can be explored in our previous pieces, including /research/eurusd-ecb-rate-path-2026-10-04.
How firms align with this view
Aligned with the headline view
Contrary positioning
Key takeaways
- 01EUR/USD remains elevated at 1.1253 amid USD weakness.
- 02Bearish long-term sentiment persists despite recent upticks.
- 03Monitor key resistance at 1.1300 for potential reversal signals.
- 04Upcoming ECB decisions may influence short-term direction.
Market implications
Looking ahead, traders should focus on the upcoming ECB meetings as potential catalysts for movement. A break above the 1.1300 threshold could suggest further gains toward our consensus target of 1.1634. Positioning through the end of the month might reflect changing dynamics in FX pairs as sentiment evolves.
Risks to this view
Should the USD regain strength amid unexpected economic data or hawkish comments from the Fed, this could invalidate the current bullish outlook for EUR/USD. A stronger-than-expected employment report could be a specific trigger to watch, potentially reversing current trends.
Sentiment by currency
USD EUR+JPY~GBP~Composite USD score: -0.35
Sources & References
How we cover this story
Other coverage on this pair
Euro: French debt risk weighs on EUR against US Dollar – ING
French sovereign debt concerns create near-term EUR/USD headwind, particularly if spreads widen further versus Bunds.
EUR/USD outlook: Bears eye psychological 1.10 support, consolidation may precede attack
Technical weakness below 1.1050 suggests near-term consolidation before potential test of 1.10 psychological support; monitor break of 1.1000 for signal of deeper USD strength.
Euro: Downside risks persist against US Dollar – Commerzbank
Commerzbank's bearish EUR/USD directional call signals downside risks that may warrant tactical USD longs near resistance levels.