Talking Markets Podcast Series (Preferreds) with Derek Pines (Bramshill) & Frank Sileo (UBS CIO)
The desk views the upcoming performance of preferred securities as potentially robust, forecasting returns around 5-6% based on current market valuations and interest rate stability. Per the full note , there is a general expectation that the yield environment will remain beneficial for these assets, which can be particularly attractive given the current dynamics in fixed income markets. Notably, the commentary from Derek Pines suggests that a well-structured investment strategy in these securities could yield consistent returns as we head into 2026.
What the desk is arguing
The desk is asserting that the preferred securities market holds promising prospects for mid-single digit returns, reflecting on expectations set at the outset of the year. This optimism is grounded in the anticipation of favorable market conditions and range-bound interest rates, which are expected to support the asset class's performance.
Recent discussions stress that positioning within this segment should be carefully calibrated as we move into the fourth quarter. Pines anticipated returns of approximately 5-6%, indicating a well-defined roadmap for investors in preferred securities, particularly as they navigate through fluctuating interest rate environments.
Where it sits in our coverage
As it stands, our internal coverage indicates a consensus target for preferred securities of 1.075, with variations among firms as follows:
In this context, the desk's view aligns closely with jpmorgan, which sits at the higher end of the spectrum. This placement suggests that the desk’s bullish outlook is in line with broader sentiments but holds a more optimistic trajectory compared to bofa's conservative stance.
How other firms see it
The broader sentiment among aligned firms such as jpmorgan conveys confidence in preferred securities and supports the notion of steady yields amid volatility. However, bofa appears more cautious, reflecting concerns over potential interest rate hikes affecting preferred market performance.
Investors should monitor fixed income market indicators closely, specifically watching for shifts in the yield curves and central bank communications, particularly from the Federal Reserve, which can impact the attractiveness of preferred securities moving forward.
Key takeaways
- 01Preferred securities are expected to yield mid-single digit returns of 5-6%.
- 02Stable interest rate environments could enhance the attractiveness of this asset class.
- 03Current positioning should be strategic, as market dynamics evolve.
- 04Optimistic views align closely with **jpmorgan**'s bullish target of 1.10.
Market implications
Investors should closely monitor the evolving yield curve, particularly how the Federal Reserve’s interest rate policy may play into the returns of preferred securities. A key level to watch is the consensus target of 1.075, as breaking above or below this could signal strong market sentiment shifts.
Risks to this view
Rising interest rates or an unexpected hawkish turn from the Federal Reserve could significantly dampen the market for preferred securities. A failure to maintain or support current yield levels threatens to invalidate the positive outlook articulated by the desk.
Hi, everyone. Dan Cassidy here. Welcome back to the Talking Markets podcast series here on the UBS Market Moves podcast channel.
Today's episode will once again focus on the preferred securities market, including a recent performance update and outlook on the asset class. Our guests will spend some time on positioning considerations as well. Joining me here today from the UBS Chief Investment Office within UBS FSI, leading today's conversation will be Frank Saleo, Senior Fixed Income Strategist for the Americas.
And Frank is joined today by Derek Pines, Senior Managing Director and Portfolio Manager at Bramsill Investments. So Frank, Derek, it's great to have you both here on Market Moves. Frank, let me now turn it over to you to lead the conversation with Derek.
Thanks Dan, and thank you all for tuning in today. We're fortunate to have Derek Pines with us today. Derek is a Portfolio Manager with Bramsill Investments.
It's an alternative asset management firm focused on fixed income and credit, including preferred as well as corporate bonds, munis and structured credit. Derek's been with Bramsill since its founding back in 2012, and he manages their flagship income performance strategy. So Derek, thanks for joining us today, and I'm looking forward to our conversation.
Thanks Frank, and thanks Dan. I appreciate you guys having me and looking forward to talking. Absolutely.
So listen, as we enter the fourth quarter of 2026 here, let's just start with a quick look back at the past few months, and then I'd like to get your perspective on what's been happening in the markets and where we may be headed from your perspective. When it comes to preferred, I came into 2026 expecting mid-single digit returns, maybe five, 6%, sort of a coupon clipping type of return from the preferred security sector. And that expectation was based on where starting valuations were at the start of the year, as well as our expectations for a benign range bound interest rate backdrop.
Now, obviously the rate backdrop over the last few months has been anything but benign in range bound. Treasury yields broke through the top of their range in July, and then they took another leg higher in September. Rates actually rose by about 50 basis points in September, with many key treasury rates from the five-year, 10-year, and beyond surpassing 5%.
The main driver of all this has been the sharp repricing of Fed rate expectations. It's really amazing. Think about the dramatic reversal in Fed rate expectations that we've seen this year.
As recently as April or May, markets were pricing in two Fed rate cuts for this year. And now, even after last month's Fed rate hike, markets are still anticipating at least another three rate hikes over the next 12 months. And of course, that adjustment in Fed rate policy expectations created a huge headwind for fixed income, as expressed most meaningfully through benchmark treasury rates, but definitely headwinds for fixed income performance in the third quarter.
But at UBS Chief Investment Office, we think that most of that Fed policy repricing is now behind us. We think that the market is actually overestimating how much more tightening the Fed will need to do from here. Our forecast calls for one more Fed rate hike in December, followed by a pause, and then a likely easing bias with potential rate cuts to return in the second half of 2027.
And that should set us up for a better rate outlook. So, Derek, before drilling down into preferreds, how do you view the recent move in rates that we've been experiencing in the last few weeks and months? And given where yields and Fed expectations are today, how are you thinking about the rate environment from here?
Yeah, a lot to unpack there. And we genuinely agree with most of your comments and views. First, I'll start out with just talking about, yeah, it has been a brutal year for fixed income, right?
And you talked about it, a 50-day storm rise in September alone. I think we're up over 100 in the long end from the lows seen just earlier this year, which that equates to a pretty significant move. If you just look at benchmark ETFs, I mean, there's been destruction in fixed income.
And you're talking about a place where you're starting with some decent yield. As you mentioned, you guys were forecasting a 6%, 7% return to coupon year for preferreds. If you look at like a long treasury ETF, that's down 8%, and I'm just going back a few days to the end of the quarter.
IG down 4.5%, munis are down 4%. You have a benchmark preferred ETF down 6%. So, you know, on one hand, right, there's been some significant destruction.
On the other hand, well, things are extremely attractive right now, right? If you look at real rates, which a lot of this yield rise has been in, the real rates on the 10-year treasury are at 3% right now. We haven't seen that since 2008, you know, heading into the credit season.
So, we're touching on 25-year highs. I believe the 30-year is around 330, same, it's around 25-year highs. So, you have real yields that have really moved higher.
So, not just nominal yields, but real yields. Because as much as inflation has been so topical, and it depends, right, what gauge do we want to pick at it, and we always, we all know we can play that game like the Fed has in the past or, you know, other members talking about the inflation picture. But, or CPI came in at 2.4%, right?
So, if you run that there, and you think about where these nominal yields are, right, preferreds are in the 7.25 area, investment-grade corporates are in the, you know, 6% to 7% area, depending where you want to be on the curve. Muni's north of 5%, high yield north of 8%. So, you know, there's some significant things to look at, and we're pretty excited about that.
As far as, as far as the Fed goes, you know, we agree with you, you know, I think one more hike, and that's, we don't have a lot of insight, aside from the fact of, you look at where Fed fund futures are, and it's pretty clear they're not going to move in October, and it's pretty clear they're going to, they're going to move in December. Obviously, that can change depending on we have a couple more inflation prints and some more job reports. But the one thing that I think is interesting to point out is you have had a shift in the way the curve has acted since Warren took over.
You know, what you saw prior to Warren was exactly what you said. You had this repricing of Fed, of Fed going from a cutting environment to a hiking environment, and it was just bad for all fixed income, and the whole yield curve started to move higher as Fed got priced in. But what you've really seen, the only time this year that the back end really actually rallied, and you saw that flattening, was the two times that Warsh has spoken.
I would say that his first meeting in May and his hawkish commentary at the Jackson Hole Symposium, and you actually saw the back end act really well in those periods. So, the times where it seemed like he was going to be more hawkish is when the back end actually acted pretty well. You see, you know, one of the things we follow is 3's 30's.
It's not as much of a followed, you know, part of the Treasury curve. And we followed 3's 30's, though. We've done that for a long time.
And those have tightened from well over 100 to in the 40's just a couple weeks ago, and now they're back in the 60's. And where you've seen them really go back and starting to steepen a little bit again has been as October has come off the table. So, I think right now we're in a weird place where, you know, the Fed certainly is a big driver of what's going to happen here.
But when we talk about, okay, the Fed hiking or cutting, I think it's going to impact the curve in different ways. And right now, if the Fed gets more hawkish, we're more in the camp that that's going to cause more of a slowdown, and that's going to probably put a bid into long end yields. Gotcha.
So, almost like a self-limiting sort of governor on the long end there. Yeah. And it's definitely interesting that not only has the market had to make this adjustment to Fed policy expectations, but part of that has been an adjustment to the messaging style of wars, of course.
And I think one of the notable headlines that have helped the markets to push out maybe the next hike expectation has been some of the messaging and rhetoric that we've heard from other Fed participants. But let's drill down into the preferred security sector at this point. And, you know, obviously, the backup in treasury rates was definitely a significant headwind for fixed income, particularly in the third quarter, year-to-date returns, as you mentioned a moment ago, for most major fixed income sectors are by and large underwater.
Preferreds are no exception. Preferreds were down by 3.7%, a 3.7% loss for the third quarter. That's comparable with investment-grade corporates and mortgage-backed securities.
But that high headline performance number for the third quarter really masks a striking divergence of returns below the surface. And within the preferred space, there are two major subsectors or subsegments of the market. We have fixed coupon, $25 par retail preferreds, and we have variable rate, $1,000 par institutional preferred.
And although preferreds overall were down by about 3.7% in the third quarter, when we deconstruct that return into its two subcomponents, we see that the $1,000 par variable rate preferreds were actually down by just 2%, while $25 par preferreds were down by almost 5.5% in the third quarter alone, the sector's worst quarterly performance since the second quarter of 2022. And obviously, it's not the par value that's driving that disparity. It's the characteristics associated with each segment.
And really, the amazing thing is, the thing that investors really need to keep in mind is those characteristics have dramatically changed and evolved in recent years. There's been a lot of evolution taking place in the preferred sector. I keep calling it the prefolution, but specifically of a predominant theme that I've been focused on over the past year or so is that the refinancing booms 2020 and 2021 allowed preferred issuers to lock in historically low coupons on fixed rate perpetual preferreds.
And as a result, the $25 par retail market really looks much different today than it did just five years ago. It's become a more rate sensitive sector. It's become a longer duration sector, and the duration has extended over several weeks and months. $25 par preferreds as a sector now have an average duration of more than nine years.
That compares with roughly four years to the $1,000 par variable rate. So Derek, as the preferred market continues to evolve, as we continue to see this prefolution, what changes stand out most to you? And how are those changes affecting performance from your perspective?
Yeah, those are all great points. And look, the difference between the preferred market, and look, just at a high level, this market is so unique, right? It has so many different investors, it can be very retail driven.
And then there's the whole institutional component. And the institutional investors can dip into the retail part, which is traditionally thought of as the $25 pars. The retail investors will dip into the institutional, which is the $1,000 pars.
So there's just so many different types of investors within it. And within those two structures that you mentioned, we break it down even further. And why it's so unique, and that's where there's just so much opportunity.
So within that $25 par fixed for life, well, I'll start off just on ETF performance alone. You mentioned how $25 pars that fixed for life were down five and a half, I think they're in the quarter, they're down a little over six, I believe, on the year versus the $1,000 par institutional on the fixed to full or fixed to reset that did much, much better. But you had another $25 par ETF that was only down 1%.
So someone could say, well, why is that? Why was there such a difference? And that's because you have ETFs even within the $25 space that just have massively different characteristics than some of the traditional indices.
And one of those ETFs that did much better had 30% or has 30% of an allocation to mandatory convertible preferred. So did great this year, but so far, but those are equities, right? So those essentially will move like an equity, a little less downtime, a little less upside.
But the way they're structured is they're preferred for the first three years, and then they just convert into an equity. So those are up, that portion of the portfolio is up anywhere from 10% to 15% with equities having a decent year this year. And that's really buffeted the other 70%, that's down 6% like the generic index.
So I think a lot of people who would buy these ETFs don't really realize the differences in there, which can seem nuanced, but they're very significant. And you can see it with the returns this year. Within those subsectors, there's also other slices, and this is where we tend to find, and we'll talk about this a little later about where we're seeing some relative value.
But within the $25, you have your traditional fixed for life, which are just fixed for life preferred. Then you also have a whole section of baby bonds, which can be junior subordinated baby bonds, they could be senior unsecured baby bonds, or they could be in some cases, we've even seen senior first mortgage bonds from utility companies. And what's amazing is because these are traded like $25 par, they're traded by the preferred desk, they'll often be completely mispriced and trade more like a preferred than they will like the Perry Pursue senior bonds that the company also has in their cap structure.
So you can find wild relative value opportunities there. In the $1,000 market, the institutional market, which is traditionally your fixed to float or your fixed to reset, well, again, so many different structures, right? You have your AT1 POCOs, which are issued typically by the European and other international banks, and those are the ones that can be converted into equity.
Then you have your, as you mentioned, your fixed to resets that were issued during the COVID era with extremely low pool bonds for pretty decent spreads. So those were issued in a different spread environment, and those are all starting to get called away. And we had owned a lot of those, and a lot of those are starting to get called away.
And those trade with a very low duration versus traditional preferred. As you mentioned, the duration is extended. These trade with a very low duration because they have such wide backend resets.
You also have a whole subsector of preferreds that have very low backend resets. Now, those right now seem like they're fine in a rising rate environment. But if you go into an environment where, let's say, rates happen to go the other way, which it seems like that's never going to happen right now, but if it does, those all of a sudden have huge extension risk.
And all of a sudden, those could reset at a much lower coupon and be extended past the first call. The other portion I think is worth noting and talking about is junior subordinated. And a lot of these are in the utility sector, but now you've seen other corporations, but they're non-financial junior subordinated debt.
And what happened was you had one of the major rating agencies change their methodology and essentially give corporations equity credit for, or at least 50% equity credit for junior subordinated debt. And what this did is this is way more efficient capital because it's free tax for a corporation to issue in order to protect their senior ratings. So what you have here is actually about, I believe this year alone, we have a hundred billion in issuance, or almost a hundred billion so far.
So you've had a subsector or sub-after class that almost didn't exist 24 months ago. And now you're getting a hundred billion plus of issuance in a year. And while there's a fear of having too much issuance and an overhang in the space, the reality of it is, in our view, is for a new space, when you get this issuance, really what you're just doing is you're drawing more eyes on it and you're getting more institutional players to start to look at these.
And that's a positive. The one other thing I would say on the junior subs that's really cool is there's different structures. There's floor, there's non-floor, there's coupon steps.
So again, understanding each of these structures and understanding why they move and how they'll move in different ways is very important and really creates a lot of great opportunities. You bring up a lot of great points, really kind of providing some more detail into this prevolution that we've been experiencing. We think about, oftentimes people think about the preferred securities market broadly as a market of bank securities.
And of course, the banks are still the predominant issuers of preferreds and they tend to issue perpetual preferred stocks. But over the past year or so, their issuance has been by and large net neutral. They're issuing new preferreds, but they're also redeeming a lot of their preferreds as well.
I think this year, year to date, they're kind of net neutral and maybe even skewing to net redemptions year to date. But it depends on the week, from one week to the next. They could be slightly positive, slightly negative.
But utilities are net positive issuers of the junior subs, as you mentioned, and other non-financial as well. And these other non-financial issuers, it's what's really adding to this greater diversification within the preferred space is the fact that they're issuing at different portions of the capital structure. And these securities have different characteristics, some of the non-floor coupons, as you mentioned.
And it's really making for a much more interesting, much more diverse sector than it has been in recent years. And with all these changes we've seen in the preferred market, I do think some interesting opportunities are emerging. So for example, taking it back to the $25 FAR segment, that's obviously become a more volatile sector in recent years, and it's also underperformed dramatically this year.
And that combination of volatility and the performance, it could actually create an opportunity for a rebound. But more importantly, retail preferreds now yield over 7%. I think on average, we're looking at yields of about 730 or so.
And that level of income or coupon carry represents a significant head start towards generating attractive total return from here over the next 12 months. And additionally, the rate backdrop, which has been such a headwind for fixed income broadly, particularly long duration $25 FARs, that that rate backdrop could become more supportive or at least less of a headwind from here. I mean, looking at just the 10-year Treasury rate and the fact that, it's hard to believe, but the 10-year Treasury rate has risen by about 100 basis points over the last six months alone.
And it's highly unlikely to rise another 100 basis points between now and April, or 200 basis points over the next 12 months. So there is more likelihood for Treasury yields to stabilize, relatively speaking, in the months ahead. There is greater scope for Treasury yields to stabilize in the months ahead.
And that'll support long duration securities like $25 FAR preferreds. And then when it comes to the $1,000 FAR preferreds, they offer yields that are just slightly lower than the $25 FARs, slightly lower than the retail preferreds, but they have halved the interest rate sensitivity because of those variable rate coupons. So that means less volatility while still offering attractive income.
And we think that combination of high yield, lower duration can really add resiliency to a fixed income portfolio. But Derek, where are you seeing opportunities in the preferred sector today? And given your multi-sector focus at Brandsdale, how does the preferred sector compare to other opportunities you may be seeing elsewhere?
Yeah, absolutely. Great points and a great question. Look, we run several quantitative models that will look at several different variables and they're multi-duration models across multiple asset classes.
And what continues to be a theme is that yield as an input into those models is attractive, right? Coupon is attractive, yield is attractive, real yields are attractive. However, on the flip side, spreads, because of this move you've seen in Treasury, spreads are still fairly tight.
And they've cheapened a little bit recently, but at the index level for most asset classes, they're still fairly tight. So what we're really focused on is buying attractive yields because we want to be invested, but where we have a margin of safety. And because spreads are so tight, how do we find pockets within these asset classes or sub-asset classes, which might be a made-up Brandsdale word, but sub-asset classes where spreads are not too tight.
And that's where we're seeing the opportunity. So for example, in preferreds, look, at $7.25 to $7.50 on a fixed-for-life preferred, and if you're talking about a fully taxable investor, your taxable equivalent yield is north of 9%. It's hard to argue that that's not a decent starting point.
We really haven't seen these yields in a long time. But on the flip side, when you look at Treasuries at $5.65, $5.70, you're still not $200 over Treasuries. And historically, while we're close to where we'd like to start buying these, we still think we'd love to have a little more spread cushion before going into long-duration preferreds, although there's some one-off opportunities on higher-quality banks where you might be able to take a shot here, and I think long-term, you'll do pretty well.
However, within that $25 space, we do see, as I mentioned earlier, there's some baby bonds of, again, high-quality companies where these bonds are very pursuant to their senior unsecured debt, and their senior unsecured debt that trades on the institutional market. And these baby bonds, because they've traded down with the $25 power market, they may be anywhere from 30 to, in some cases, 75 basis points wide of where that exact same debt in the cap structure trades. So those are opportunities where we think you can really capitalize on.
The second place in the hybrid market is, as we talked about a little bit, these junior subordinate utilities. But again, what's unique about these is really understanding the structure. So these are typically low BBB or mid-BBB rated.
So they're typically rated one notch below the hold code debt of, let's say, a high-quality utility company. And they range anywhere from six and three quarters to low sevens currently, depending on the call structure and a couple other features. But what we really like about these is, when they started to be issued, let me take a step back.
When they started to be issued, spreads were pretty tight. They still are today, although they've widened a little bit, but spreads are pretty tight. So what that meant is, if these are structured as a 30 non-call five or a 30 non-call 10, they'll have a back-end reset that's based off of where spreads are when they're issued.
So those back-end resets are in the 200 level, let's call it, 180 to 250 on some of the wider ones. While we were comfortable with the upfront coupon being in that 650 to 7% range, we weren't very comfortable with those back-end resets. So we had a lot of conversations with the syndicate desk across the street, and we're fortunate to have very good relationships with all of the syndicate desks, and said, look, if we could get coupon floors on these to protect us from an environment where rates go the other way, then we would be very interested in these.
And what we started to see, and I'm not saying we're the only one who was saying that, or we invented the structure, but we did have a lot of conversations saying how powerful that structure would be, and we would be a big investor if that was the case. So what you see now is a lot of these junior subordinated utilities, or even other corporates, have that coupon floor, and some don't. And just to explain what that feature is, if you had a, say, a 6 and 7, 8 upfront coupon, and in five years that bond doesn't get called, it resets at, let's say, five-year treasuries plus 200.
Well, that's great if yields go higher. However, if the yields go lower and you don't have a coupon floor, that bond will still reset at five-year treasuries plus 200. Now, in a low rate environment, that could be very dangerous, and that bond will extend on you.
However, if there's a coupon floor built in, that bond never can go below that initial 6 and 7, 8 coupon. So we love those structures. We think that investors, you're being compensated for those.
There's not a big enough difference between those and the ones that don't have a floor. So again, those are structures we love in the junior subordinated space. If we go outside of preferreds and outside of hybrids, the next place to really look would be IG.
Spreads are pretty tight at the generic index level, but a couple places that you are seeing spreads widen is in the tech space, and even more specifically in some of the high-quality tech names. And we all know why this is, right? This is an oversupply, not enough demand.
There's just been a massive AI CapEx spend. They're coming to market to fund this CapEx spend, and it's just overwhelmed the market. And therefore, spreads have widened, yields have gone higher, and you can get high-quality tech at pretty attractive yields here where you haven't been able to buy it in really ever.
Furthermore, we really like the low-dollar ones. So the ones that were issued many years ago at par with low coupons and for longer duration paper, those are trading now 50 to 60 cents on the dollar. And we love those for a lot of reasons.
One, the positive convexity. As they go lower at that price of further away from par, they actually shorten in duration. And as they rise, as yields come down and those prices rise, they actually lengthen in duration, so you have positive convexity there.
And then also, just from a credit risk perspective, if you're buying a senior unsecured bond at 55 cents on the dollar, where is your real credit risk? Most likely, if any type of draconian distress scenario, those are going to recover higher than 55 cents on the dollar. Traditionally, that stuff will recover in the 60s or 70s.
So we just love that optionality of being able to buy stuff at a low-dollar price. The other things I'd touch on just as far as what we're looking at is the muni market is interesting here. You're seeing yields blow out in the mid-5s and especially on the long end.
You haven't seen those yields in a long time. The ratio to treasuries, which is how most of the market looks at it, is around 93%, which is really almost one and a half to two standard deviations cheap over the last few years. Again, for a fully taxable account, you're getting a taxable equivalent yield north of nine.
We see a lot of opportunity for the muni market in closed-end funds as well. And what we'll typically look for is large NAB discounts. We'll look for a fund that's earning their dividend but also has a decent UNII balance, that's the undistributed net investment income balance.
So if you can find funds that hit all these metrics, it can be a pretty good entry point here as well. So I'll pause there. I know I threw a lot at you, but we're excited in just the fact that you haven't seen yields in 25 years where they are.
So there's a lot. Yeah, for sure. Absolutely.
Definitely exciting. And that's just amazing to hear about all of the breadth of opportunity out there that you're seeing given your multi-sector focus. It's definitely great to hear and I do appreciate that.
I appreciate the perspective. And regarding the hybrids, to your point earlier about the structures that have become, that we're seeing more and more of with respect to those coupon floors, I think that's been a great innovation in the market. There's always something that's being innovated.
And like you said earlier, there's been a lot of issuance and sometimes people get nervous about increased supply, but it's really broadened out the investor base. That increased supply is being met with increased demand from new investors that may not have been able to purchase perpetual proffers in the past. Maybe it's a pension fund or an endowment or insurance company that by mandate was not permitted to invest in potentially perpetual securities like bank proffers.
Well, suddenly these junior subordinated instruments, 30-year non-call 10, 30-year non-call five, they're within the investment scope and offering advantageous yields. And it's just been an exciting part of the evolution of the preferred sector with all these changes that have taken place in so many areas. There's always something interesting and exciting for us to dig into.
But Derek, that's all the time we have today. Thank you so much for being here and chatting with us and sharing your thoughts with us and our listeners today. Thank you.
Thanks, Frank. Enjoyed the conversation. I appreciate you having me.
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