EUR/USD Price Forecast: Holds gains near 1.1250, but bearish bias holds below 100-day average
The EUR/USD pair is currently maintaining a position around 1.1250 despite facing bearish pressures informed by ongoing fiscal concerns in France. While the recent strength suggests a potential for further gains, the pair's inability to surpass the 100-day moving average highlights a lurking downside risk. Traders should note that while the technical indicators might reflect bullish sentiment, underlying economic uncertainties could cap further upward movement in the currency.
Where it sits in our coverage
Our consensus EUR/USD target currently stands at 1.1600 (median across 11 firms), with Commerzbank at the upper end of the spectrum (1.2200) and Lloyds at the lower boundary (1.1200). This consensus reflects a notable disparity among firms in their outlooks, with several aiming for targets closely aligned with the 1.1700 plateau and others more conservative, indicating the market's mixed sentiments.
How firms align
Rabobank, with a target of 1.1759 for March 2026, reflects a more optimistic view that is consistent with the positive sentiment observed in EUR/USD's recent performance. On the other hand, TMGM poses a contrary stance with a much lower target of 1.1447 for the same period, suggesting that firms are sharply divided regarding the currency's immediate trajectory. You can explore these positions further in our reports, such as /research/rabobank and /research/tmgm.
What the data shows
Recent revisions show a mix of projections, especially with UBS raising its March target to 1.2000, indicating a potential shift in sentiment toward the euro. You can find a deeper analysis in our recent publication at /research/eurusd-ecb-rate-path-2026-10-21.
How firms align with this view
Aligned with the headline view
Contrary positioning
Key takeaways
- 01EUR/USD's current spot at 1.1253 might see limited upside due to fiscal concerns.
- 02Technical indicators show bullish signals, but fundamentals remain wobbly.
- 03Watch for impacts of French fiscal policies on EUR/USD.
- 04Revising forecasts is a critical signal for market participants.
Market implications
Next, traders should monitor the 1.1300 support level, as a breach could trigger further bearish momentum. Additionally, upcoming fiscal policy announcements from France could serve as catalysts that influence EUR/USD's movement and the consensus target of 1.1600.
Risks to this view
A significant escalation in France's fiscal issues could invalidate the bullish outlook on EUR/USD, pushing the pair below key support levels. Moreover, any unexpected hawkish signals from the US Federal Reserve might further weigh on the euro against the dollar.
Sentiment by currency
USD EUR+JPY~GBP~Composite USD score: -0.35
Sources & References
How we cover this story
Other coverage on this pair
Euro: Range trading consolidation persists against US Dollar – UOB
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EUR/USD rebounds from 1 (100%) support Arc. Potential advance toward 1.1258
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