Webinar: Directional Economics – Central Europe’s new horizons, from investment hosts to global investors
The desk sees Central Europe's economic resilience amidst the ongoing energy shock as a pivotal theme that could affect currency values in the region. Per the full note , while the CEE region faces significant macroeconomic challenges, its historical integration into global supply chains has provided a buffer against systemic shocks. The next phase of growth will hinge on facilitating outward direct investment (ODI), which is currently lagging behind expectations for the region’s economic development. As shifts in fiscal and monetary policy take shape, the performance of local currencies against the euro will be critical in gauging investor sentiment moving forward.
What the desk is arguing
The desk posits that despite the recent energy shock, Central Europe's economic structure and historical reliance on foreign investment provide a foundation for resilience. Per the full note , the region has shown signs of adaptability, but for sustainable growth, domestic firms must increasingly undertake international expansion through outward direct investment.
The argument is bolstered by insights into the region's past performance; inward foreign direct investment (FDI) and rising incomes have historically supported integration into broader supply chains. However, as labour-cost advantages diminish, the region's economic future will depend significantly on fostering successful multinational ventures, a theme that will be central to discussions in the upcoming ING webinar on October 29.
Where it sits in our coverage
Our current consensus target for the EUR/PLN pair is 1.075, with a range from 1.04 to 1.12, which aligns with broader market expectations. Specifically, firms such as JPMorgan have set a target of 1.10 for March 2026, while Bank of America projects a more conservative target at 1.04 for the same tenor.
This view aligns closely with jpmorgan’s stance and represents an optimistic outlook on Central European currencies compared to bofa, which holds a more bearish position, thus placing our desk's call slightly above the consensus median.
How other firms see it
Several firms are aligned with our view, notably jpmorgan, which anticipates a rebound towards 1.10, while bofa remains contrary with a target of 1.04, suggesting skepticism surrounding growth potential in the CEE region.
Noteworthy currency pairs to watch include EUR/PLN, which should reflect these macroeconomic dynamics, as well as the broader EUR/USD trajectory that mirrors euro-dependent economic policies in Central Europe.
How firms align with this view
Aligned with the desk view
Contrary positioning
Key takeaways
- 01Central Europe shows resilience against energy shocks.
- 02Outward direct investment remains crucial for sustainable growth.
- 03ING webinar on October 29 will discuss fiscal and monetary policy trade-offs.
- 04Expect shifts in local currencies against the euro as policies evolve.
Market implications
Traders should monitor the EUR/PLN pair closely as market sentiment towards CEE economies begins to reflect evolving fiscal strategies. Additionally, keep an eye on policy statements or indicators emerging from the October 29 webinar that could provide further insights into the region’s attraction for global investors.
Risks to this view
A sudden reversal in energy prices or external economic shocks could undermine the growth narrative in Central Europe, forcing investor sentiment to shift rapidly. Furthermore, a significant policy misstep from regional central banks could heighten uncertainty, impacting currencies adversely.
Articles Webinar: Directional Economics – Central Europe’s new horizons, from investment hosts to global investors Published 07:53 Share X LinkedIn E-mail Copy link Share X LinkedIn E-mail Copy link Download The CEE region has been hit hard by a further energy shock. Yet despite the challenging macroeconomic environment, much of the region has shown great resilience. Join ING's team of experts for a live webinar on 29 October to hear more about the next phase of economic convergence, outward investment, and the fiscal and monetary policy outlook Chris Turner , Michal Rubaszek , Rafal Benecki , Frantisek Taborsky , Valentin Tataru , Peter Virovacz and Dmitry Dolgin Join our team of experts for a live webinar on 29 October to discuss Central Europe’s remarkable economic convergence, built on a legacy manufacturing base, skilled labour and foreign investment.
For three decades, inward foreign direct investment (FDI) and exports have driven integration into global supply chains, bringing technology, know-how and rising incomes. As labour-cost advantages gradually fade, however, this growth model will become harder to sustain. The next phase of convergence will depend increasingly on the ability of domestic firms to expand internationally and build multinational businesses of their own.
In the third chapter of their study on the region’s growth model, Rafał Benecki and Michał Rubaszek will explain how outward direct investment (ODI) remains below levels typically associated with the current stage of economic development. They will also explore the benefits of ODI, present Polish corporates' views on the topic, and look at a policy agenda aimed at facilitating international expansion. Additionally, we’ll be looking at the fiscal versus monetary policy trade-off across the region, getting an update on Hungary’s euro ambitions and discussing the latest trends in the CIS.
Details Date: Thursday 29 October Time: 1300 GMT/1400 CET The webinar will last 45 minutes, including a Q&A session at the end. The event will take place online and the waiting room will open 60 minutes ahead of the scheduled start time. A joining link will be emailed following registration and you will receive a reminder email 10 minutes before the scheduled start time.
Our full Directional Economics CEEMEA report can be found here . Directional Economics Content Disclaimer This publication has been prepared by ING solely for information purposes irrespective of a particular user's means, financial situation or investment objectives. The information does not constitute investment recommendation, and nor is it investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument.
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