EUR/USD Price Forecast: Holds steady near 1.1450, bearish tone remains intact
The EUR/USD pair remains anchored near 1.1450, with a bearish sentiment prevailing in the market. While current trading around 1.1446 keeps it close to recent lows, our analysis reflects a broader divergence from consensus forecasts that anticipate moves towards higher targets in the coming months. The persistent bearish tone could signal challenges for the Euro, particularly amidst ongoing uncertainties within the Eurozone economy.
Where it sits in our coverage
Our consensus EUR/USD target stands at 1.1700 (median across 11 firms), with Morgan Stanley projecting the highest target at 1.2000 for March 2026, while Lloyds is the most conservative at 1.1200. The current level at 1.1446 remains significantly below this median consensus, which underscores an overall bearish bias in line with the [PUBLISHER]'s analysis.
How firms align
Several firms maintain a bullish outlook contrary to the current bearish view, notably RBC, which targets 1.1600 for March 2026. Conversely, firms like TMGM and Standard Chartered are more aligned with the prevailing bearish sentiment, although their targets remain slightly above the current spot price, with Standard Chartered at 1.1400 for March 2026.
What the data shows
Recent forecast revisions point to adjustments in bullish sentiment; for instance, BNP Paribas revised its March target down to 1.1600 on September 16, indicating some reduced optimism. Furthermore, our research highlights that EUR/USD is trading approximately 1.41% below the December consensus of 1.1700, as reported in /research/eurusd-ecb-rate-path.
How firms align with this view
Aligned with the headline view
Contrary positioning
Key takeaways
- 01EUR/USD trades at 1.1446, maintaining a bearish outlook.
- 02Market sentiment suggests caution around Eurozone economic indicators.
- 03Watch for ECB announcements as potential catalysts for volatility.
- 04Revisions from firms signal a more cautious approach moving forward.
Market implications
Traders should monitor the 1.1400 support level closely, as a clear break below this could trigger further selling pressure. Additionally, any comments from the ECB in upcoming meetings may influence EUR/USD positioning significantly, given our consensus target of 1.1700 for March 2026.
Risks to this view
A shift in the ECB's monetary policy towards more hawkish stances could invalidate the bearish outlook, potentially leading to a sharp reversal in EUR/USD. Specifically, unexpected rate hikes or stronger-than-expected economic data from the Eurozone could challenge the current bearish sentiment.
Sentiment by currency
USD+EUR JPY~GBP~Composite USD score: +0.55
Sources & References
How we cover this story
Other coverage on this pair
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