EUR/USD Price Forecast: More downside likely below 1.1160
The EUR/USD pair is under pressure, with the technical outlook indicating potential further declines below the 1.1160 level. Current trading at 1.1253 places the currency just above this critical threshold, suggesting traders must closely watch for any breaches that could signal additional dollar strength. Given the current sentiment scoring favors a bullish USD over bearish EUR, the outlook appears tilted towards further depreciation in the euro versus the dollar in the near term.
Where it sits in our coverage
Our consensus EUR/USD target sits at 1.1634 (median across 12 firms), with CIBC at the upper bound (1.2200) and HSBC at the lower (1.1000). The content from fxstreet aligns with the current bearish sentiment around the euro as it points to weakness below 1.1160, a key technical level.
How firms align
Specific firms such as Rabobank and SocGen maintain bullish forecasts with targets at 1.1759 and 1.1700 for March 2026, respectively, while more pessimistic views are held by TMGM and Mizuho, with targets at 1.1447 and 1.1300. This distinction reflects the divergence in sentiment surrounding the EUR/USD outlook in the coming months.
What the data shows
Recent forecast revisions have shown minor adjustments, like Mizuho dropping their March target to 1.1500. Additionally, our published research indicates that the euro is trading significantly below December consensus, as evidenced in our reports such as /research/eurusd-ecb-rate-path.
How firms align with this view
Aligned with the headline view
Contrary positioning
Key takeaways
- 01EUR/USD trades at 1.1253, remaining vulnerable as it approaches critical support at 1.1160.
- 02Watch for a breach below 1.1160, which could confirm continued dollar strength.
- 03Current consensus targets reveal a range from 1.1000 to 1.2200 indicating mixed outlook.
- 04Technical indicators suggest more downside risk for EUR/USD in the near term.
Market implications
Traders should monitor the 1.1160 support level closely, as a break could lead to increased bearish pressure on the euro. Upcoming economic data releases will also be critical in determining direction and extending moves away from the current consensus target of 1.1634.
Risks to this view
A reversal in this outlook could occur if eurozone economic data outperforms expectations or if the Federal Reserve hints at a dovish shift in policy, which could strengthen the euro against the dollar.
Sentiment by currency
USD+EUR JPY~GBP~Composite USD score: +0.65
Sources & References
How we cover this story
Other coverage on this pair
Euro: OAT repricing keeps downside bias against US Dollar – MUFG
French OAT repricing widening EUR/USD spreads vs Treasuries maintains structural headwind for euro through risk-off sentiment.
EUR/USD: Waiting for Fed Minutes
Euro: Fiscal concerns limit recovery against US Dollar - Commerzbank
Eurozone fiscal headwinds constrain EUR/USD upside; structural concerns may offset technical bounce attempts.
Euro: Rebound capped by resistance against US Dollar – UOB
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Cross-firm research
EUR/USD Consensus Gap: Spot at 1.1191 vs 1.1634 Target, Week of Oct 7 2026
EUR/USD spot sits 3.81% below the 30-firm Dec-26 consensus median of 1.1634, signalling a broadly bullish street view the market has yet to validate.
EUR/USD Trades 3.4% Below Dec-26 Consensus as 30-Firm Median Holds 1.1634
EUR/USD spot at 1.1243 sits 3.36% below the 30-firm Dec-26 consensus of 1.1634, with a 0.155 dispersion range signalling deep disagreement on the path ahead.
EUR/USD Consensus Check: Spot at 1.1203, Median Target 1.1634 — Week of October 5, 2026
EUR/USD trades 3.71% below the 30-firm median Dec-26 target of 1.1634, leaving a wide consensus-to-spot gap that demands explanation.