EUR/USD Price Forecast: Posts mild gains above 1.1050, while staying capped below 100-day SMA
The EUR/USD pair is experiencing mild gains just above the 1.1050 level; however, momentum remains capped by the 100-day SMA. This cautious performance aligns with insights from the ECB regarding monetary policy, which could limit any potential upside. The current sentiment shows a bearish bias on the USD against a moderately bullish outlook on the EUR, as traders weigh the differences in central bank stances. Market participants are closely watching for signals from upcoming economic data that could reinforce or challenge the current trend.
Where it sits in our coverage
Our consensus EUR/USD target stands at 1.1700 for March 2026, with a range from as low as 1.1000 to a high of 1.2000 across various firms. Notably, firms like RBC and Nomura are on the more bullish end with targets of 1.1600 and 1.1700, respectively, while Lloyds displays a more cautious stance at 1.1331.
How firms align
A number of firms align with a bullish view on EUR/USD, as seen with CIBC at 1.1866 and Commerzbank at 1.1900 for March 2026. These forecasts are consistent with our expectations that current price action may trend upward over the longer term. In contrast, BofA's target of 1.1700 for March suggests a more conservative outlook.
What the data shows
Recent forecast revisions indicate a general upward trend in targets across multiple firms, with Mizuho recently adjusting their target to 1.1300 for March 2026. Further insights can be gleaned from our published research highlighting the current spot against a median target of 1.1400 in /research/eurusd-ecb-rate-path-2026-11-12.
How firms align with this view
Aligned with the headline view
Contrary positioning
Key takeaways
- 01EUR/USD is capped below the 100-day SMA despite mild gains near 1.1060.
- 02Market is focused on ECB communications for future USD direction.
- 03A breakout above 1.1050 may signal a rally, but ECB caution persists.
Market implications
Traders should watch the 1.1060 level closely for potential breakout opportunities, particularly as economic events unfold. Our consensus target of 1.1700 suggests room for upward movement, pending favorable data releases.
Risks to this view
A significant shift in ECB policy or unexpected negative data from the Eurozone could reverse current bullish sentiments, particularly if bearish indicators push EUR/USD back below 1.1050.
Sentiment by currency
USD EUR+JPY~GBP~Composite USD score: -0.35
Sources & References
How we cover this story
Other coverage on this pair
EUR/USD remains depressed amid mixed Eurozone data and a hawkish Fed
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EUR/USD: Political risks tilt against Euro – Commerzbank
US political gridlock reduces dollar-weakness risk from unilateral easing, while French election uncertainty and eurozone debt concerns create EUR/USD headwinds.
Euro sees fresh downside below 1.1050 against US Dollar, US PPI in focus
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