Romania delivers solid growth in the third quarter
The Romanian economy has demonstrated strong resilience, with recently released third-quarter GDP figures surpassing expectations by recording a quarterly growth of 2.1%. Per the full note from ing-think, this outperformance indicates potential for an upward revision to our previously cautious growth forecast of -0.5% for 2026, with a more optimistic view for 2027. However, the desk remains vigilant pending the detailed GDP breakdown due on December 7, which could provide further insights into sustainability of this growth trajectory.
What the desk is arguing
The Romanian economy's third-quarter growth represents a notable upswing, countering previous pessimism regarding its economic trajectory. Per the full note from ing-think, the expansion by 2.1% is one of the largest quarterly improvements seen post-pandemic, indicating robust underlying economic factors at play.
This growth was likely bolstered by decisive contributions from investments, particularly ahead of the disbursement of the Recovery and Resilience Facility (RRF) funds. The positive momentum in agriculture and construction sectors further supports this strong performance, suggesting a complex but beneficial economic environment.
Where it sits in our coverage
Our consensus target for the EUR/RON stands at 1.075, with a range between 1.04 and 1.12. Within this spectrum, jpmorgan estimates a 1.10 target for March 2026, while bofa holds a more cautious stance with a 1.04 target for the same tenor.
This bullish narrative aligns with the more optimistic targets set by jpmorgan, positing a slight divergence from the bearish outlook of bofa. Given the recent positive data releases, our view leans towards the upper end of the target range.
How other firms see it
Market sentiment appears divided, with aligned firms like jpmorgan supporting a more positive view on Romanian growth based on the recent GDP performance. Conversely, bofa maintains a contrary outlook, reflecting caution due to potential headwinds in the coming quarters.
Key indicators to monitor include the EUR/RON dynamics which will likely reflect the broader economic narrative emerging from Romania's growth patterns and fiscal policies, particularly regarding RRF utilization and consumer activity.
How firms align with this view
Aligned with the desk view
Contrary positioning
Key takeaways
- 01Romania's GDP grew by 2.1% in Q3, exceeding expectations and indicating strong economic recovery.
- 02Investment and agricultural performance played critical roles in this growth despite potential risks ahead.
- 03Upcoming detailed GDP data on December 7 will be essential for refining growth forecasts.
- 04Our outlook suggests a possible upward revision for 2026 based on recent performance.
Market implications
Watch the EUR/RON for potential shifts, especially after the detailed GDP release on December 7, which may prompt market adjustments depending on the robustness of growth drivers.
Risks to this view
Should the December 7 GDP detailed breakdown show weaker components than anticipated—particularly concerning investment and consumption—it may necessitate a reassessment of the growth outlook and market sentiment towards the RON.
Older quick take Quick take Published 09:40 Romania Translate Romania delivers solid growth in the third quarter Today’s flash GDP data came in visibly above expectations and our own estimates. While this upside surprise argues for an upward revision to our -0.5% GDP forecast for this year somewhere towards zero, we remain cautious and will wait for the detailed breakdown on 7 December (and potential revisions alongside) before adjusting our projections The Romanian economy visibly outperformed in the third quarter The message from today’s release is clear: the Romanian economy visibly outperformed in the third quarter. GDP expanded by 2.1% in the third quarter compared to the second, marking one of the sharpest quarterly improvements in recent years outside the post-pandemic rebound.
While a detailed breakdown is not yet available, investments likely contributed decisively to the strong result, reflecting the last-mile push in RRF, alongside a smaller drag from private consumption. Inventories might have contributed positively as well, after a few quarters of negative contribution. On the production side, a strong agricultural season, coupled with solid construction output, likely served as positive drivers.
Still, it is too early to celebrate. The risks of underperformance in the next quarters remain alive, especially if the remaining RRF absorption disappoints. Further ahead, however, the likely indexation of public wages and pensions from 2027 onwards should lend fresh support to private consumption.
Against this backdrop, our current 2026 growth forecast of -0.5% now looks overly cautious; stagnation – or even a marginal expansion – appears plausible. However, we will await the detailed GDP release on 7 December (and eventual data revisions that may come with it) before revising our -0.5% estimate for 2026, while taking greater comfort in our +2.2% projection for 2027, which had recently started to look somewhat optimistic. Finally, today’s stronger-than-expected reading may offer some relief for the central bank’s policy outlook.
By narrowing the aggregate demand deficit, the data makes a “higher-for-longer” interest rate scenario less painful for the broader economy. We continue to expect NBR to deliver a total of 50bp of rate cuts next year, possibly starting with its May policy meeting. Risks to this call remain broadly balanced, as mildly supportive domestic developments (on the inflation and fiscal fronts) are so far offset by a less favourable external environment, including core rate dynamics and energy prices.
Romania GDP growth Content Disclaimer This publication has been prepared by ING solely for information purposes irrespective of a particular user's means, financial situation or investment objectives. The information does not constitute investment recommendation, and nor is it investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Read more Share X LinkedIn E-mail Copy link Share X LinkedIn E-mail Copy link Download Authors Valentin Tataru Chief Economist, Romania Stefan Posea Economist, Romania Older quick take
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