What's takeaway 1 on Asia week ahead?

ING forecasts China October retail sales growth slowing to 0.7% YoY, with headline FAI at -6.7% YoY YTD and IP steady at 5.5% YoY — a soft-domestic, strong-IP mix.

What's takeaway 2 on Asia week ahead?

Taiwan October export orders are forecast at 67.0% YoY; ING explicitly says no signal of an AI capex slowdown has appeared yet.

← Commentary feed2026-11-13 08:10Z

ING THINK

Asia week ahead: Japan GDP and key data from China and Taiwan

Per the full note from ING's Asia research desk, the week ahead is a three-part macro puzzle for Asia FX: Japan's GDP is the marquee, with China's October activity batch and Taiwan's export orders providing the cyclical cross-checks. The desk's key thesis is that China's domestic demand remains the laggard (retail sales growth moderating to 0.7% YoY, headline FAI at -6.7% YoY YTD) even as industrial production holds steady at 5.5% YoY, while Taiwan's export orders at a forecast 67.0% YoY confirm the AI capex cycle has yet to show a slowdown signal. The alternative read — that China's September strength was the start of a recovery — is implicitly rejected; ING frames September as a one-off, not a turning point. Our internal coverage has no live currency targets on these jurisdictions, so the desk-of-record value here is the data interpretation and the cross-asset read-through: China soft-domestic/strong-IP is a deflationary signal for the yuan's yield complex, while Taiwan's export orders are the cleanest test of whether the AI trade is still compounding. No high-impact events are flagged on our calendar in the next 30 days for these jurisdictions, so the data itself is the catalyst.

What the desk is arguing

ING's Asia research team, in a piece published 08:10 and authored by Deepali Bhargava and Lynn Song, frames the week as a test of two diverging Asian growth engines: a China where domestic demand stays soft but industrial production outperforms, and a Taiwan where export orders remain in explosive territory. The single declarative thesis is that China's September data strength was a head fake, not a regime change — retail sales growth is expected to moderate to 0.7% YoY, and fixed asset investment stays deeply negative at -6.7% YoY YTD, while IP holds at 5.5% YoY.

The supporting evidence the desk leans on is the internals: consumption remains weak in discretionary categories, public investment is only a partial offset to the FAI drag, and the 70-city property price data is merely "stabilising" in tier 1 and a few tier 2 cities rather than recovering. In Taiwan, the desk forecasts export orders at 67.0% YoY for October and explicitly says it is watching for signs the AI capex cycle could be slowing — and so far, "we haven't seen any such signal." That is a strong statement from a desk that could easily have hedged.

The alternative read the desk is implicitly rejecting is that September's China activity bounce marked a trough in domestic demand. ING's numbers — 0.7% retail sales growth — are a direct rebuttal: that is barely above stagnation, and it implies the consumer is not participating in any recovery. For an FX trader, the message is that China's growth mix remains export/IP-led, which keeps the yuan's rate complex biased toward accommodation rather than reflation.

How other firms see it

Because we hold no internal currency targets on China, Japan or Taiwan this week, there is no cross-firm spread to anchor ING's call against. The relevant intersection points are the regional pairs and indicators the thesis spills into: USD/CNY and the 1-year and 5-year loan prime rates (expected unchanged at 3.0% and 3.5%), plus USD/JPY into Japan's GDP print and the Taiwan export-order series as the cleanest AI-cycle proxy in Asia FX. The desk's China call — soft domestic, strong IP — is the mirror image of a reflation trade, and that is the axis on which a contrary view would form.

What the calendar says

China's October activity data lands Monday, with retail sales, FAI and IP all in one batch; the 70-city property price data is the same day. Taiwan's export orders follow on Friday, and China's LPR decision is later in the week with both tenors expected unchanged. There are no other high-impact events flagged in our calendar for these jurisdictions over the next 30 days, so the Monday China batch and Friday Taiwan orders are the two windows where the desk's numbers get marked to market.

Key takeaways

01ING forecasts China October retail sales growth slowing to 0.7% YoY, with headline FAI at -6.7% YoY YTD and IP steady at 5.5% YoY — a soft-domestic, strong-IP mix.
02Taiwan October export orders are forecast at 67.0% YoY; ING explicitly says no signal of an AI capex slowdown has appeared yet.
03China's 1-year and 5-year LPRs are expected unchanged at 3.0% and 3.5%, reinforcing a hold-not-ease policy stance.
04The desk rejects the idea that September's China strength marked a turning point; the 70-city property data is only stabilising in tier 1 and a few tier 2 cities.

Market implications

Watch the Monday China activity batch for the retail sales print — a sub-1% YoY outcome would validate ING's soft-consumer call and keep the yuan's rate complex biased toward accommodation. Then watch Friday's Taiwan export orders: a print below the 67.0% YoY forecast would be the first credible crack in the AI capex narrative and would hit the tech-linked Asian currencies hardest. LPR on hold at 3.0%/3.5% is the base case, so any surprise cut would be a larger signal than the data itself.

Risks to this view

The call is invalidated if China's October retail sales beat materially (above 2% YoY) or if FAI improves well past -6.7%, which would suggest the September strength was real and the domestic demand trough is behind us. On the Taiwan side, an export-orders print above 67.0% YoY would extend the AI trade rather than test it, wrong-footing anyone positioned for a slowdown signal. An unexpected LPR cut would also break the 'hold' base case and reprice the yuan complex.

ING

Articles Asia week ahead: Japan GDP and key data from China and Taiwan Published 08:10 Asia week ahead China Japan Taiwan Translate Share X LinkedIn E-mail Copy link Share X LinkedIn E-mail Copy link Download Japan's GDP is the highlight of the week, alongside China's domestic activity data and Taiwan's export orders Deepali Bhargava and Lynn Song Asia research highlights of the week 10 questions for China in 2027 China’s inflation cooled in October amid falling food prices Chinese trade continues to ride the global AI boom A steadier economy ahead: 3 calls for China Our latest views on the major central banks The narrowing of the AI divide: 3 calls for Asia Asia FX Outlook 2027: Rotation underway but tech currencies should lead FX Outlook 2027: Seven key calls China: Domestic weakness persists as IP outperforms China releases its key domestic activity data for October on Monday. After a surprisingly solid September, we expect retail sales growth to moderate to 0.7% YoY as consumption stays soft amid weak discretionary consumption. After stabilising last month, fixed asset investment growth could see a smaller drag in October as public investment picks up.

We expect headline FAI to rise to -6.7% YoY YTD. Industrial production is expected to remain the outperformer, and we think growth will remain unchanged at 5.5% YoY. We will also watch the 70-city property price data, which has recently been showing a stabilisation of prices in tier 1 and a few tier 2 cities.

Later next week, China’s loan prime rates will be released, with the 1- and 5-year LPRs expected to remain unchanged at 3.0% and 3.5%, respectively. Taiwan: Export orders continue to grow Taiwan releases its export orders data next Friday. We expect the strong growth of the past few months to continue and are looking for 67.0% YoY growth in October.

This indicator is worth watching closely for signs that the AI capex cycle could be slowing, but so far we haven't seen any such signal. Various Taiwanese corporates have signalled that order books remain full on an 18-month rolling basis, suggesting that momentum should stay solid for now. Japan: Third quarter GDP and activity data in focus Japan will release its Q3 GDP and trade data next week.

The market expects growth to slow sharply to 0.1% QoQ from the previous 0.4%, with private consumption contracting 0.2% as the expiry of energy subsidies pushed utility bills sharply higher. Markets expect imports to accelerate to 25.9% YoY on energy and capital equipment, while exports pick up to 20.1%, extending to 13 consecutive months of YoY gains. Altogether, it leads to a trade balance deficit of JPY1067bn.

Japan will also release its inflation data next Friday. The market expects headline inflation to accelerate to 2.5% YoY from 2.1% in September with core CPI rising to 2.3%. A firm inflation reading would support expectations for further Bank of Japan policy normalisation.

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