EUR/USD Price Forecast: Sits near weekly top around 1.1450 as bulls flirt with 23.6% Fibo.
The EUR/USD pair is currently testing resistance near the 1.1450 level, with bullish momentum attempting to breach the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement. This price action reflects traders' growing optimism amid a broader neutral sentiment in major currencies. As investors digest mixed signals from economic data, the pair's ability to sustain momentum at these levels could have implications for near-term trading strategies in the face of a complicated macro environment.
Where it sits in our coverage
Our consensus EUR/USD target sits at 1.1700 (median across a range of firms), with Commerzbank at the upper bound (1.2200) and Citi at the lower (1.1300). The recent thrust towards 1.1450 suggests traders are increasingly aligning with the higher targets, particularly given the recent bullish revisions found in our analysis.
How firms align
Commerzbank and Goldman have updated their forecasts to reflect higher targets for March 2026 at 1.1900 and 1.1800, respectively, which aligns closely with the bullish sentiment indicated in the headline. Meanwhile, Citi's projections remain conservative at 1.1300 for the same tenor, highlighting a divergence among strategies. See our detailed analysis on /reports/commerzbank and /reports/goldman.
What the data shows
Recent forecast revisions show Goldman and MUFG anticipating upward momentum for the EUR, both raising their March targets to 1.1800. Additionally, our research suggests that the EUR/USD is currently trading 4.74% below the December 26 consensus of 1.20, indicating potential for an adjustment if bullish momentum persists. For further details, see our report at /research/eurusd-ecb-rate-path.
How firms align with this view
Aligned with the headline view
Contrary positioning
Key takeaways
- 01EUR/USD flirting with 1.1450 resistance indicates bullish sentiment.
- 02Traders should monitor for a sustained breach above this level.
- 03Watch currency pair responses around key upcoming economic data releases.
- 04Mixed firm forecasts highlight divergent trader outlooks.
Market implications
Watch for price action around the 1.1450 level as it may dictate near-term direction, with our consensus target of 1.1700 potentially coming into play if bullish momentum continues. The upcoming ECB meeting might provide catalysts for volatility.
Risks to this view
A failure to maintain above 1.1400 could trigger a bearish reversal, particularly if upcoming economic data points to a weaker outlook to bolster the dollar. A shift in Fed policy or unexpected Eurozone economic indicators could also pressure the pair downward.
Sentiment by currency
USD~EUR~JPY~GBP~Composite USD score: +0.00
Sources & References
How we cover this story
Other coverage on this pair
Euro: Narrow path for sustained strength against US Dollar – ING
ING assessment of constrained EUR upside signals limited momentum for euro strength; USD positioning likely remains defensive.