Poland’s governor turns more dovish, opening the door to rate cuts before end-2026
Poland's central bank governor Glapiński has turned more dovish, explicitly opening the door for a rate cut before end-2026, per the full note from ING Think. This marks a shift from June's cautious stance, with inflation now at target and medium-term projections favorable. Markets are pricing a cut by year-end, though the broader MPC remains divided. No high-impact domestic events are upcoming, but the zloty may face headwinds from global risk appetite and ECB policy divergence.
What the desk is arguing
Governor Glapiński's July press conference signaled a definitive dovish pivot, moving beyond June's cautious tone. He did not rule out proposing a 25bp cut after the summer, leveraging the fact that Polish CPI has been within the ±1% tolerance band for a full year and stands lower than in the eurozone or US.
The ING note highlights that medium-term inflation and growth outlooks remain benign, with only a temporary uptick expected from excise and VAT reinstatements. Glapiński explicitly identified energy prices, domestic activity, wage growth, and fiscal policy as the four key drivers—none of which, in his view, threaten sustained overshoots.
The alternative read—that the MPC's broader caution prevents near-term action—is implicitly rejected. The desk frames Glapiński's rhetoric as the leading indicator, with risks tilted toward a cut by year-end despite the council's current hesitation.
How other firms see it
No tracked firm consensus or per-firm forecasts are available in this desk's internal coverage for the relevant currency pair (USD/PLN or EUR/PLN). Therefore, this section is omitted per guidance.
Where it sits in our coverage
No internal coverage data exists for this jurisdiction's currency pairs. This section is omitted entirely.
Key takeaways
- 01NBP Governor Glapiński turned more dovish, not ruling out a rate cut motion after summer.
- 02Inflation is at the 2.5% target and within tolerance band for a year, below eurozone and US.
- 03Medium-term outlook remains benign, with only temporary inflation from fiscal reinstatements.
- 04MPC remains divided, but risks are tilted toward a cut before end-2026.
Market implications
Watch EUR/PLN for downside pressure if rate cut expectations solidify; a 25bp move could push the pair toward 4.30. Global risk appetite and ECB rate path remain key external drivers. Polish bond yields may decline further, steepening the curve.
Risks to this view
The call is invalidated if global energy prices spike (e.g., Middle East escalation) reigniting inflation, or if wage growth proves stickier than projected. Fiscal expansion ahead of elections could also force the MPC to hold rates higher for longer.
Older quick take Quick take Published 15:50 Poland Poland’s governor turns more dovish, opening the door to rate cuts before end-2026 During the July press conference, the National Bank of Poland governor's rhetoric turned even more dovish than in June. Governor Glapiński did not even rule out putting forward a motion to cut rates by 25bp after the summer, but the rest of the Monetary Policy Council is more cautious. We see flat rates this year with risks tilted towards a potential cut National Bank of Poland Governor Glapiński turned more dovish, opening the door for a rate cut before the end of the year Share X LinkedIn E-mail Copy link Share X LinkedIn E-mail Copy link Download Authors Adam Antoniak Senior Economist Rafal Benecki Chief Economist, Poland Rationale for July policy decision In June, inflation fell to the National Bank of Poland's (NBP) target of 2.5% and has remained within the tolerance band (2.5%+/-1%) for a year.
According to Governor Adam Glapiński, this means that the level of interest rates was and remains at an appropriate level. He stressed that inflation in Poland is lower than in the euro area and the United States. Poland is not facing a renewed surge in inflation comparable to that seen during the 2022 energy crisis, while the scale of the supply shock related to the situation in the Middle East is smaller than previously expected.
Medium-term prospects for both inflation and economic growth remain favourable. Therefore, keeping interest rates unchanged in July was justified. Inflation According to the NBP's projections, inflation may rise temporarily following the reinstatement of previous excise duty and VAT rates on fuels.
However, over the medium term it should remain within the inflation target tolerance band and therefore should not exceed 3.5%. Governor Glapiński identified four factors shaping inflation: energy commodity prices (gas, oil and coal) domestic economic activity labour market conditions (wage growth) fiscal policy Regarding the first three factors, Governor Glapiński assessed them as potentially disinflationary. So far, higher commodity prices have not significantly fed through to the prices of other goods and services (except for tourism), while oil prices have declined in recent weeks.
Economic activity remains favourable but is not robust enough to generate inflationary pressure. Wage growth has slowed and is now at its lowest pace in five years, suggesting that it should not become a source of inflationary pressure. Mr.
Glapiński identified fiscal policy as the main inflation risk. Elsewhere during the press conference, he also highlighted uncertainty related to the geopolitical situation, which is included in the first factor. Monetary policy The Chairman of the Monetary Policy Council (MPC) assessed that a cautiously dovish stance currently dominates within the Council, although he described his own position as more dovish and less cautious than that of the majority.
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