EUR/USD Price Forecast: Softens to near 1.1350 as bearish bias holds below key averages
EUR/USD has continued its downward trajectory, recently softening towards 1.1350 amid persistent bearish pressures beneath key technical averages. This movement aligns with our current sentiment, favoring a stronger USD as we observe short-term weakness in the Euro. Given the prevailing forecasts, market players are closely monitoring potential breaks below the 1.1350 mark, which could reinforce this bearish bias further.
Where it sits in our coverage
Our consensus EUR/USD target is currently set at 1.1700 (median across firms), with forecasts ranging from 1.1200 at Danske Bank to 1.2300 at Morgan Stanley. In the context of the recent price action, this consensus is notably higher than the current spot at 1.1446, suggesting expectations of a rebound despite bearish trends.
How firms align
Several firms are closely aligned with the negative outlook reflected in the headline. For instance, Lloyds projects a lower end target of 1.1331 for March 26, while HSBC is at 1.1700, with a generally cautious stance. The bearish bias is somewhat echoed by Stanchart’s target of 1.1400, further reflecting the prevailing sentiment of caution for the Euro against the Dollar.
What the data shows
Recently revised forecasts indicate a range of adjustments based on shifting market dynamics, with BofA recently lowering its March target to 1.1700 amid overall bearish sentiment. Similarly, ANZ has adjusted their review to 1.1609, highlighting the market's inclination towards caution as detailed in our prior research on the EUR/USD trajectory (/research/eurusd-ecb-rate-path-2026-09-28).
How firms align with this view
Aligned with the headline view
Key takeaways
- 01EUR/USD softens to 1.1350 support amid bearish sentiment.
- 02Watch for technical breaks below 1.1350 for further signs of weakness.
- 03Short-term USD strength supported as Euro remains under pressure.
- 04Consensus still projects a rebound yet underlying risks persist.
Market implications
In the coming weeks, focus on the 1.1350 support level to gauge the Euro's strength. The upcoming inflation data release and European Central Bank commentary will be crucial for price action as we align closely with our consensus target of 1.1700.
Risks to this view
A reversal in this bearish view could be triggered by unexpectedly strong Eurozone economic data or a shift in ECB policy direction favoring monetary expansion. Key events to monitor will be any hawkish signals from the ECB that could redefine expectations for the Euro.
Sentiment by currency
USD+EUR JPY~GBP~Composite USD score: +0.65
Sources & References
How we cover this story
Other coverage on this pair
EUR/USD multi-dimensional structural decomposition – 8TF
Euro: EUR/USD bearish bias converging on support – Societe Generale
EUR/USD approaching technical support levels with established bearish momentum; traders should monitor break-below scenarios for acceleration targets.
Euro approaches yearly lows at 1.1324 against an unstoppable US Dollar
EUR/USD breaking toward yearly lows signals sustained USD strength; monitor if 1.13 becomes technical support or capitulation trigger.