On this page · 4 sections▾
EUR/USD trades at 1.1391 as of September 27, 2026, against a 30-firm median December-2026 target of 1.17 — a gap of roughly 2.64% — as tracked in the full EUR/USD bank forecast table. The dispersion across all 30 desks spans 0.14 figures, from Citi's floor at 1.10 to Nordea's ceiling at 1.24, underscoring how wide the range of outcomes remains with one quarter left in the year.
Key Numbers
- Live spot (Sep 27, 2026): 1.1391
- Cross-firm consensus median (Dec-2026): 1.17
- Dispersion (max − min, 30 firms): 0.14
- Gap, spot vs. consensus: −2.64% (spot well below)
- Most bullish firm: Nordea — target 1.24
- Most bearish firm: Citi — target 1.10
Firm-by-Firm Targets
| Firm | Dec-2026 target | Stance |
|---|---|---|
| Goldman Sachs | 1.12 | bullish |
| Crédit Agricole | 1.13 | neutral |
| J.P. Morgan | 1.13 | bullish |
| Société Générale | 1.14 | bullish |
| Bank of America | 1.15 | bullish |
| BNP Paribas | 1.15 | bullish |
| Mizuho | 1.15 | bearish |
| Deutsche Bank | 1.1668 | bullish |
| ANZ | 1.17 | neutral |
| Scotiabank | 1.17 | neutral |
| Rabobank | 1.18 | neutral |
| UBS | 1.18 | bullish |
| UOB | 1.18 | bullish |
| MUFG | 1.18 | bullish |
Why Does EUR/USD Trade Below Consensus?
The 2.64% gap between spot and the 30-firm median is not noise. Three distinct macro frameworks explain why the bulk of the sell-side sits above current levels, yet the tape has not followed.
Front-end rate spreads. The 2-year US–EUR rate differential has compressed materially over the past two quarters as the Federal Reserve has moved into an easing posture while the ECB has held policy rates longer than many expected. Deutsche Bank, with a 1.1668 target, anchors its EUR/USD call on the view that further Fed cuts will erode the dollar's carry advantage through year-end, pulling the spread tighter and lifting the pair. The desk's bullish stance reflects a conviction that spot is still pricing in too much residual dollar premium.
ECB terminal-rate path. Bank of America (target 1.15, bullish) and BNP Paribas (target 1.15, bullish) both frame their calls around the ECB's rate trajectory. Both desks argue that the ECB has room to ease only modestly from here, keeping European real rates relatively supported and limiting the downside for EUR. The implication is that the dollar's outperformance in spot terms reflects positioning overhang and risk-off episodes rather than a durable reassessment of policy divergence.
Terminal-rate dispersion. The 0.14-figure spread across all 30 firms — Citi at 1.10, Nordea at 1.24 — reflects genuine disagreement about where Fed and ECB terminal rates ultimately settle. Goldman Sachs sits at the low end of the named desks with a 1.12 target, despite carrying a bullish stance on the pair. GS's framework acknowledges EUR upside but sees the path constrained by US growth resilience keeping the Fed on hold longer than consensus assumes. That view leaves GS bullish in direction but cautious on magnitude — a posture that, at 1.12, is barely above current spot.
Which Desks Are the Outliers, and What Would It Take for Consensus to Converge to Spot?
Per-firm Q1→Q4 path with revision arrows from each firm's prior published target. Sorted ascending by terminal target.
Source: HSBC · Citi · Danskebank · Lloyds +26 more
30 firms aggregated · as of 2026-09-27 06:03 UTC
Nordea's 1.24 target stands as the most aggressive call in the 30-firm universe. At that level, the desk is pricing in a scenario where Fed easing accelerates, the ECB holds, and dollar positioning unwinds sharply — a combination that would require a material deterioration in US data relative to the eurozone. Citi's 1.10 floor, by contrast, implies the dollar retains enough carry and safe-haven demand to keep EUR/USD pinned near current levels or lower.
Mizuho is the only desk in the named 14 carrying a bearish stance with a 1.15 target — meaning the desk expects EUR/USD to fall from current spot toward that level, not rise to it. That is a minority view, but it captures the risk that the ECB pivots more aggressively than priced, compressing the rate support that the bullish consensus relies on.
For the 30-firm median to converge to spot rather than spot converging to the median, several conditions would need to materialise simultaneously: the Fed would need to pause or reverse its easing cycle on stronger-than-expected US activity data; the ECB would need to accelerate cuts in response to a eurozone growth shock; and the dollar's safe-haven bid would need to reassert itself on renewed global risk aversion. Absent that combination, the structural bias of the consensus — 2.64% above spot, with the majority of desks carrying bullish or neutral stances — suggests the more likely adjustment is spot drifting higher toward the median rather than targets being revised down to meet spot.
ANZ and Scotiabank, both at 1.17 with neutral stances, represent the consensus midpoint. Neither desk is making a strong directional call; both are essentially marking the pair to where the rate and growth arithmetic points by December, without a strong view on the path.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the current EUR/USD spot rate as of September 27, 2026?
Spot is 1.1391. The 30-firm median December-2026 target is 1.17, placing spot 2.64% below consensus.
Which bank has the highest EUR/USD target for December 2026?
Nordea carries the most bullish target in the 30-firm universe at 1.24, representing a potential move of roughly 8.9% above current spot if realised.
Which bank has the lowest EUR/USD target?
Citi holds the most bearish position at 1.10, implying EUR/USD would need to fall approximately 3.4% from current spot to reach that level by year-end.
How wide is the disagreement across banks?
The max-to-min dispersion across all 30 firms is 0.14 figures — from 1.10 to 1.24 — reflecting material uncertainty about the Fed and ECB terminal-rate outcomes over the remaining quarter.
→ See the full MUFG FX outlook for the desk's detailed EUR/USD rationale and cross-currency views.
Read next
Firms covered in this article
Bank Forecast
Goldman Sachs →
Bank Forecast
Creditagricole →
Bank Forecast
Bank of America →
Bank Forecast
ANZ →
Bank Forecast
Scotiabank →
Bank Forecast
Uob →
Bank Forecast
Deutsche Bank →
Bank Forecast
Bnpparibas →
Bank Forecast
UBS →
Bank Forecast
Societe Generale →
Bank Forecast
Mizuho →
Bank Forecast
Rabobank →
Bank Forecast
MUFG →
Bank Forecast
JPMorgan →
Continue tracking EUR/USD
More from EUR/USD
- EUR/USD
EUR/USD Consensus Check: Spot at 1.1373 vs 1.17 Median, Week of September 28, 2026
EUR/USD spot sits 2.79% below the 30-firm median Dec-26 target of 1.17, exposing a consensus that remains structurally bullish on the euro.
- EUR/USD
EUR/USD Consensus Check: Spot at 1.1391, Median Target 1.17 — Week of September 26, 2026
EUR/USD spot sits 2.64% below the 30-firm median Dec-26 target of 1.17, leaving consensus firmly bullish even as tape momentum lags.
- EUR/USD
EUR/USD Consensus vs Spot Gap: Week of September 25, 2026
EUR/USD spot sits 2.54% below the 30-firm Dec-26 median target of 1.17, with a 0.14-wide dispersion range signalling meaningful disagreement on the path ahead.
Share