EUR/USD Price Forecast: Sticks to gains above 1.1600 as bulls await ECB, US PPI
The EUR/USD pair has maintained its gains above the 1.1600 level, signaling bullish sentiment as market participants await key economic indicators from the ECB and US PPI reports. This reflects a broader optimism on the Euro amid a neutral tilt in USD sentiment. The upcoming reports will be crucial in determining the trajectory of the currency pair, especially as bulls position themselves for potential ECB policy shifts, which could bolster the Euro further.
Where it sits in our coverage
Our consensus EUR/USD target sits at 1.1700 (median across firms), with Morgan Stanley at the upper bound (1.2000) and Stanchart at the lower end (1.1400). The current spot at 1.1446 suggests that the market remains cautious ahead of significant economic data, despite the bullish outlook noted in the headline.
How firms align
RBC and Nomura have targets that align closely with the optimistic outlook presented, both pegging their Mar26 targets at 1.1600 and 1.1700, respectively. On the other hand, Stanchart's conservative view at 1.1400 indicates a divergence from the prevailing market sentiment. More details on their stances can be found in /reports/rbc and /reports/nomura.
What the data shows
Recent forecast revisions reflect a growing consensus towards a stronger Euro, with Mizuho upgrading to 1.1800 for Mar26. Multiple firms' targets support this bullish sentiment, highlighted in our report /research/eurusd-ecb-rate-path-2026-09-09, indicating a continued divergence from the current spot price.
How firms align with this view
Aligned with the headline view
Contrary positioning
Key takeaways
- 01EUR/USD poised above 1.1600 as traders await ECB, US PPI.
- 02Key catalysts in play include the ECB meeting and inflation data.
- 03Watch for levels around 1.1700 to confirm bullish sentiment.
- 04Bulls are eyeing policy shifts that could further support the Euro.
Market implications
Market players should monitor the ECB decision on monetary policy, scheduled for next week, as it could significantly impact the EUR/USD direction. A firm breakout above 1.1700 could validate the bullish narrative, aligning with our consensus target of 1.1700 for Mar26.
Risks to this view
Any unexpected dovish signals from the ECB or lower-than-expected US PPI could dampen the bullish outlook for EUR/USD. A decisive move below 1.1400 would indicate a reversal of sentiment, leading to potential bearish positioning.
Sentiment by currency
USD~EUR~JPY~GBP~Composite USD score: +0.00
Sources & References
How we cover this story