EUR/USD Price Forecast: Strengthens to near 1.1500, while bearish bias persists below 100-day SMA
The EUR/USD is moving upward, closing in on the 1.1500 mark, indicating some resilience in the Euro. However, the market's bearish sentiment remains, particularly since the pair is trading below the 100-day SMA. This dynamic illustrates the tug-of-war between positive movement towards the psychological 1.1500 threshold and the underlying bearish bias that current valuations reflect.
Where it sits in our coverage
Our consensus EUR/USD target stands at 1.1684 (median across various firms), with RBC and CIBC positioning at the upper end of forecasts (1.2000). This contrasts with the more tempered views of firms like Stanchart (1.1400) and Lloyds (1.1331). The current market price of 1.1446 is cautiously aligned with lower end expectations, although signs of strength exist.
How firms align
RBC is one of the more optimistic firms with a March target of 1.1600, reflecting support for the Euro's strengthening position. In contrast, DanSkebank's recent downward revision to 1.1200 for June highlights a more cautious stance, diverging from the overall consensus view. For a detailed review, see our research on RBC and DanSkebank at /research/eurusd-ecb-rate-path-2026-09-16.
What the data shows
Recent revisions indicate a mixed outlook, with BNP Paribas raising their March target to 1.1600 while DanSkebank lowered theirs to a bearish 1.1200. This aligns with past findings in our note on the divergence between spot and consensus numbers (/research/eurusd-ecb-rate-path).
How firms align with this view
Aligned with the headline view
Contrary positioning
Key takeaways
- 01EUR/USD approaches 1.1500, suggesting potential resistance at this level.
- 02Key bullish versus bearish sentiment as traders balance momentum and SMA levels.
- 03Watch for moves past the 100-day SMA to gauge more decisively bullish sentiment.
Market implications
The next focus is on whether EUR/USD can break and hold above the 1.1500 level, potentially reacting to economic data or ECB assessments. With our consensus targeting 1.1684 long-term, positioning could become more favorable should momentum underpin stronger European economic signals.
Risks to this view
A significant factor that could invalidate the bullish outlook would be a firmer USD stance, particularly if U.S. economic data outshines expectations or if the ECB signals a more dovish rate path than currently anticipated.
Sentiment by currency
USD EUR+JPY~GBP~Composite USD score: -0.35
Sources & References
How we cover this story
Other coverage on this pair
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