EUR/USD Price Forecast: Weakens below 1.1250, bearish tone prevails below 100-day SMA
The EUR/USD is facing downward pressure following its dip below the 1.1250 mark, reinforcing a bearish sentiment as highlighted in the recent forecast. The breakdown below the 100-day SMA indicates a technical shift that investors should monitor closely, especially regarding potential currency flows. This trend comes amid increasing expectations for U.S. dollar strength against a backdrop of Eurozone economic challenges, thereby suggesting that the downward trajectory may persist if momentum continues.
Where it sits in our coverage
Our consensus EUR/USD target stands at 1.1688 (median across 10 firms), with CIBC at the highest forecast of 1.1866 and TMG's lower target at 1.1447. This range indicates a divergence in market expectations, as several firms are more optimistic compared to the current bearish tone indicated by the recent price action.
How firms align
Rabobank, with a target of 1.1759 for March 2026, aligns moderately with the bearish view, while TMGM’s position at 1.1447 suggests a more cautious outlook. Notably, HSBC's projection for March at 1.1700 also leans towards the optimistic side, but is balanced against more conservative targets from firms like Mizuho (1.1300) and Investec (1.1455). Refer to our internal reports for deeper analysis on these firms' positions: /research/rabobank, /research/tmgm
What the data shows
Recent revisions have seen notable shifts with Nordea raising its target to 1.1884 for March 2026, indicating a more positive outlook compared to earlier projections. This underscores a potential shift in market sentiment that could favor a stronger Euro moving forward. See more insights in our report /research/eurusd-ecb-rate-path-2026-10-18.
How firms align with this view
Aligned with the headline view
Contrary positioning
Key takeaways
- 01EUR/USD is trading at 1.1253, signaling persistent bearish tones.
- 02Watch for sustained moves below 1.1250 to confirm bearish momentum.
- 03Bearish sentiment could lead to targets around 1.1300 if weakness in the EUR persists.
- 04Technical indicators suggest resistance is forming at the 100-day SMA.
Market implications
Next week’s data releases could be pivotal; anticipate market reactions particularly around the 1.1250 level and any commentary from central banks. Our consensus target emphasizes potential resistance around 1.1688 which traders should watch closely.
Risks to this view
A sharper-than-expected recovery in Eurozone economic data or dovish signals from the Fed could undermine the current bearish outlook, forcing a reassessment of targets south of the 1.1250 support.
Sentiment by currency
USD+EUR JPY~GBP~Composite USD score: +0.65
Sources & References
How we cover this story
Other coverage on this pair
Morning briefing: EUR/USD may rise towards 1.1300
Technical resistance at 1.1300 suggests near-term EUR/USD upside bias if structural support holds.
EUR/USD rebound faces a reality check at resistance
CFTC Report: Euro and Aussie shorts build as Gold exposure remains elevated
Sustained EUR short accumulation in CFTC positioning suggests institutional conviction on EUR/USD downside; gold longs may signal commodity hedges amid macro uncertainty.