Morning briefing: EUR/USD may rise towards 1.1300
The EUR/USD has been buoyed by recent bullish sentiment, with expectations for a rise towards 1.1300 gaining traction. Current support around 1.1253 may signal a continuation of this upward trajectory should momentum build. Market participants are closely watching for catalysts that could push the euro higher amid a backdrop of diverse forecasts suggesting a median target of 1.1700 across various firms. This positive sentiment contrasts with ongoing debates surrounding U.S. economic strength and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy.
Where it sits in our coverage
Our consensus EUR/USD target currently stands at 1.1700 (median across firms), with estimates ranging from 1.1200 at the lower bound by Mizuho to 1.2200 by CIBC at the upper end. The view presented by [fxstreet.com] aligns closely with the upper portion of this range, indicating a potential path for further gains.
How firms align
Rabobank, SocGen, and Nomura are among firms aligned with this bullish sentiment, targeting 1.1759, 1.1700, and 1.1700 respectively for March 2026. This suggests a consensus view that supports a rise towards the higher levels outlined in the headline. In contrast, Mizuho is more conservative with a target of 1.1300, hinting at potential headwinds.
What the data shows
Recent revisions indicate strengthening bullish forecasts, particularly from Nordea, who has adjusted their March target up to 1.1884. This aligns with our previous insights, such as the commentary found in /research/eurusd-ecb-rate-path-2026-10-18, highlighting the current divergence between spot prices and analyst expectations.
How firms align with this view
Aligned with the headline view
Contrary positioning
Key takeaways
- 01EUR/USD poised to challenge 1.1300 support amid bullish forecasts.
- 02Momentum builds around long positions; traders are eyeing 1.1700 targets.
- 03Key calendar events in the coming weeks may influence market direction.
Market implications
Going forward, traders should monitor the 1.1300 level closely as a breakout could lead to a stronger push towards the upper targets around 1.1700. The upcoming ECB meeting also presents a significant calendar event that may catalyze further price movements, especially with our consensus target in mind.
Risks to this view
A shift in U.S. economic indicators, particularly if they signal stronger-than-expected growth, could invalidate the bullish outlook for EUR/USD. Any aggressive rhetoric from the Federal Reserve could also weigh on the euro, pulling it back below current supports.
Sentiment by currency
USD EUR+JPY~GBP~Composite USD score: -0.30
Sources & References
How we cover this story
Other coverage on this pair
EUR/USD Price Forecast: Weakens below 1.1250, bearish tone prevails below 100-day SMA
EUR/USD breakdown below 100-day SMA signals technical momentum shift; watch 1.1250 as key support level for USD strength confirmation.
EUR/USD rebound faces a reality check at resistance
CFTC Report: Euro and Aussie shorts build as Gold exposure remains elevated
Sustained EUR short accumulation in CFTC positioning suggests institutional conviction on EUR/USD downside; gold longs may signal commodity hedges amid macro uncertainty.