Tier 2 specialistfxstreet.comFX
Loading…
FX BANK FORECAST · COVERAGE
Institutional FX coverage in your inbox
Aggregated year-end forecasts, scenario shifts, and curated analyst notes from 38 institutional desks. No promotion.
FX BANK FORECAST · COVERAGE
Aggregated year-end forecasts, scenario shifts, and curated analyst notes from 38 institutional desks. No promotion.
The EUR/USD pair maintains a bullish sentiment, buoyed by positive Eurozone factory activity while grappling with uncertainties surrounding US elections. However, the inability to sustain momentum above the 1.1200 level suggests that the currency pair may be confined to a range until clearer directional cues emerge. The current level at 1.1253 indicates near-term resilience, but traders should be wary of stalling momentum as they navigate these geopolitical headwinds.
Our consensus EUR/USD target currently stands at 1.1759 (median across 13 firms), with CIBC at the upper bound (1.2200) and HSBC at the lower end (1.1000). This outlook suggests a relatively bullish stance for the euro, albeit tempered by current market dynamics that are capping short-term gains.
Several firms align with a bullish view on the euro, including Rabobank and Nomura, both projecting 1.1700 for March 2026. Conversely, Wells Fargo is more cautious, projecting a lower target of 1.1200 for the same timeframe, indicating a split among market participants on EUR/USD future direction.
Recent forecast revisions reflect a rising optimism for the euro, particularly from firms like UBS, which recently raised its target to 1.2000 for March 2026. This aligns with our studies, highlighting a potential upward trajectory amidst external influences as seen in our report, /research/eurusd-ecb-rate-path-2026-11-01.
How firms align with this view
Aligned with the headline view
Contrary positioning
Key takeaways
Market implications
Next key levels to watch are 1.1200 as resistance and 1.1300 as support. Market participants should prepare for fluctuations as we approach the US election date. Our consensus target of 1.1759 is reflective of overall bullish sentiment but may need reevaluation based on election outcomes.
Risks to this view
A significant downside risk would be a sharp negative shift in US election outcomes or stronger-than-expected US economic data, which could pressure the euro and invalidate current bullish sentiment. Additionally, any dovish signals from the ECB could dampen current EUR/USD forecasts.
Sentiment by currency
USD EUR+JPY~GBP~Composite USD score: -0.35
How we cover this story
USD strength expected to persist through 1H27 on AI-driven growth premium and energy inflation, with EUR/USD downside risk to sub-1.10 levels warranting tactical short positioning.
Fitch's negative France outlook shift constrains EUR/USD rally momentum as peripheral sovereign risk premia widen.
Articles FX Daily: Dollar holds gains into midterms Published 07:51 FX Share X LinkedIn E-mail Copy link Share X LinkedIn E-mail Copy link Download At the start of a very busy week for FX markets, the dollar is largely holding onto recent gains. In focus are the US midterms, wher
Articles Why AT1 still matters in 2027 Published 11:53 Credit Financial Institutions Share X LinkedIn E-mail Copy link Share X LinkedIn E-mail Copy link Download AT1 reform may remain on the back burner in 2027, leaving the instruments' role in bank capital largely unchanged. Sol
Articles Bank of Japan hits 2% price target Published 08:02 FX Japan Share X LinkedIn E-mail Copy link Share X LinkedIn E-mail Copy link Download In a big day for monetary policy in Japan, the Bank of Japan finally announced it had hit its 2% price target – a target set in 2013.
EUR/USD trades 2.65% below the 32-firm median Dec-26 target of 1.15, with a 0.135-wide dispersion band that signals deep disagreement on the Fed-ECB policy path.
EUR/USD spot sits 2.97% below the 32-firm median Dec-26 target of 1.15, with a 0.135 dispersion range signalling deep disagreement on the path ahead.
On 2026-10-29, the European Central Bank held its policy rate at 2.50%. Here is where the major banks now see the currency heading.