Weekly forex forecast: EUR/USD, XAU/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, Bitcoin and more [Video]
The current euro value at 1.1253 reflects a neutral sentiment, with consensus forecasts suggesting potential upward moves by mid-2026. The variability in market expectations highlights a range from 1.1162 to 1.2000 in the coming months, indicating market participants are factoring in dynamic economic conditions and ECB policy reactions. As firms adjust their targets, the implications for EUR/USD are significant, especially with recent revisions hinting at rising bullish sentiment.
Where it sits in our coverage
Our consensus EUR/USD target currently stands at 1.1700 for March 2026 (median across 14 firms), with RBC at the upper bound (1.2000) and HSBC at the lower end (1.1000). In comparison, this week's analysis from [fxstreet.com] aligns with the prevailing neutral sentiment as it discusses potential movements across several major currency pairs.
How firms align
Rabobank and Nomura are among the firms projecting a bullish stance, with targets of 1.1759 and 1.1700, respectively for March 2026. Conversely, HSBC's more conservative projection of 1.1000 reflects caution, suggesting potential bearish market sentiment that diverges from the upward trajectories described by other analysts. For detailed insights, see our /reports/rabobank and /reports/hsbc.
What the data shows
Recent forecast revisions have seen UBS revise its target to 1.2000 for March 2026, signaling a shift in expectations. Additionally, our research indicates the median target for March 2026 remains stable at 1.1700, outlining consistent expectation across firms regarding the medium-term path for the euro amid ongoing central bank discussions. See /research/eurusd-ecb-rate-path-2026-11-01 for further analysis.
How firms align with this view
Aligned with the headline view
Contrary positioning
Key takeaways
- 01EUR/USD current spot at 1.1253 indicates neutral short-term sentiment.
- 02Focus on ECB's next policy decisions as a driver for euro movements.
- 03Expect volatility as targets range from 1.1162 (Investec) to 1.2000 (RBC) over the coming months.
Market implications
Watch the 1.17 resistance level closely; a move above could signal bullish momentum. Upcoming ECB announcements may influence sentiment, particularly given the current neutral positioning reflected in our consensus.
Risks to this view
A significant reversal in ECB policy stance, particularly if hawkish signals weaken, could invalidate the bullish outlook. Additionally, adverse economic data from the eurozone may lead to downward adjustments.
Sentiment by currency
USD~EUR~JPY~GBP~Composite USD score: +0.00
Sources & References
How we cover this story
Other coverage on this pair
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