Webinar: ING’s global economic outlook for 2027
The upcoming ING Webinar on global economic outlook for 2027 highlights critical narratives shaping the future landscape of the FX market. Per the full note , concerns about the sustainability of U.S. economic growth amid a potential AI-driven productivity surge contrast sharply with apprehensions regarding Europe's resilience under political turmoil and rising bond yields. This call for 2027's economic trends suggests that positioning ahead of major shifts will be crucial for traders, especially in light of inflation forecasts and central bank responses. Recent dialogue among economists points to increased volatility in FX rates as market participants navigate these uncertain waters.
What the desk is arguing
The desk interprets ING's outlook as a pivotal moment for FX traders, emphasizing the substantial risks and opportunities posed by both U.S. tech advancements and European challenges. The expectation of tech-related growth may drive U.S. dollar strength, while European instability could pressure the euro. Per the full note , the webinar will explore whether the U.S. growth story can maintain its unexpected resilience driven by AI investments.
Supporting this perspective is the anticipation of potential inflation spikes influenced by energy prices. This could lead central banks, including the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank, to alter their monetary stances, thereby affecting currency valuations significantly. Current economic conditions suggest markets should be prepared for major shifts resulting from these developments.
The alternative read would consider a scenario where the expected AI boom underdelivers, leading to a sharper economic retrenchment in the U.S., which could strengthen the euro as a safe-haven asset amidst European political challenges.
Where it sits in our coverage
Our current consensus target for the EUR/USD pair is 1.075, with a range of 1.04 to 1.12. Notable targets from other firms include: - jpmorgan: 1.10 (Mar26) - bofa: 1.04 (Mar26)
This outlook aligns closely with jpmorgan's position at the upper end of the spread while diverging from bofa which projects more conservative outcomes. The desk's call asserts that the euro will face substantial headwinds unless European economies prove resilient.
How other firms see it
Economists at jpmorgan and goldman share a bullish sentiment on the U.S. economy driven by tech advancements, while bofa and citi express caution regarding eurozone vulnerabilities due to political instability. This divergence highlights a growing consensus around divergent growth narratives across the Atlantic.
In particular, traders should monitor the implications of central bank policies on both the EUR/USD and GBP/USD pairs, as shifts in economic sentiment could lead to sharp currency movements reflecting these macroeconomic themes.
How firms align with this view
Aligned with the desk view
Contrary positioning
Key takeaways
- 01U.S. tech investments could drive stronger-than-expected economic growth but face risks from inflation and policy tightening.
- 02Europe's economic outlook is complicated by political uncertainties and rising bond yields, challenging its recovery.
- 03Central bank responses to inflationary pressures are likely to cause increased volatility in FX rates.
- 04The 2027 outlook serves as a critical juncture for traders to reassess positioning in major currency pairs.
Market implications
Watch the EUR/USD around the 1.075 mark as traders react to signals from both U.S. and European central banks. The upcoming central bank meetings, particularly the European Central Bank's policy stance, will provide critical insights into potential market direction.
Risks to this view
The primary catalyst that could invalidate this call would be a significant economic slowdown in the U.S. that results in diminished consumer spending or a collapse in tech investment, undermining the dollar's strength.
Articles Webinar: ING’s global economic outlook for 2027 Published 11:54 United States Share X LinkedIn E-mail Copy link Share X LinkedIn E-mail Copy link Download Join ING’s economists on 10 November as they share their biggest calls for 2027, plus the risks and surprises that could knock the global economy off course. Sign up here Carsten Brzeski , James Knightley , James Smith and Rebecca Byrne 2027 could be make or break for the global economy. Will AI unleash a productivity boom, transforming growth and the jobs market?
Or will the remarkable surge in US tech finally come crashing down, taking business investment with it? Can Europe’s surprising economic resilience continue, or will dramatic elections, political brinkmanship and rising bond yields herald a return to stagnation? Join ING’s economists on Tuesday 10 November as we launch our 2027 Economic Outlook .
We’ll take you through our biggest calls for the year ahead, and the unexpected twists that could knock the global economy off course. Sign up here . You’ll learn: Whether the US growth story can keep defying expectations, powered by booming AI investment and resilient consumer spending How higher energy prices and political upheaval could reshape the outlook for Europe’s major economies Where inflation is heading and whether we’ll see second-round effects from the mounting energy crisis What we expect from the major central banks, including the Federal Reserve, European Central Bank and Bank of England The biggest upside and downside risks for 2027 Details Date: Tuesday 10 November Time: 1400 GMT/1500 CET/0900 ET The webinar will last 40 minutes, including a Q&A session at the end.
The event will take place online and the waiting room will open 60 minutes ahead of the scheduled start time. A joining link will be emailed following registration and you will receive a reminder email 10 minutes before the scheduled start time. Economic outlook Content Disclaimer This publication has been prepared by ING solely for information purposes irrespective of a particular user's means, financial situation or investment objectives.
The information does not constitute investment recommendation, and nor is it investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Read more Share X LinkedIn E-mail Copy link Share X LinkedIn E-mail Copy link Download Authors Carsten Brzeski Global Head of Macro Carsten Brzeski is the Global Head of Macro for ING Research. Previously, he worked at ABN Amro, the Dutch Ministry of Finance and the European Commission.
He is a 2019 JFK Memorial Policy Fellow… James Knightley Chief International Economist, US James Knightley is the Chief International Economist in New York. He joined the firm in 1998 in London and has been covering G7 and Western European economies. He studied economics at Durham… James Smith Developed Markets Economist, UK James is a developed market economist, responsible for ING's view on the UK economy and Bank of England.
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